Prediction Market Gives Donald Trump 94% Chance of Securing GOP Nomination, 55% Chance of Beating Joe Biden
Polymarket, which describes itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” is giving former President Donald Trump a 94 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee for president as of Monday afternoon.
A snapshot of the 2024 election, forecast Monday afternoon, showed a 94 percent chance of Trump becoming the Republican nominee. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley only garnered four percent, while another three percent said “other.” One percent each went to entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both of whom have dropped out of the GOP primary race and backed Trump.
RELATED — Endorsed! Vivek Drops Out of Race, Throws “Full” Support Behind Trump
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Interestingly, there is more confidence that Trump will be the GOP nominee than that President Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee, as the latter garners 85 percent, followed by six percent for California Gov. Gavin Newsom and five percent for former First Lady Michelle Obama. Rep. Dean Phillis (D-MN) sees three percent support, and Vice President Kamala Harris garners two percent in the current predictions.
The predictions do not end there, however. While the forecast currently has an 82 percent chance of Biden and Trump facing off, 55 percent believe Trump would win the 2024 presidential race, followed by 39 percent for Biden, two percent for Newsom, one percent for Haley, and one percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
.@Polymarket – 2024 Election:
Republican Nominee:
Trump 95% (+91)
Haley 4%
.
Democratic Nominee:
Biden 85% (+79)
Newsom 6%
Obama 5%
Phillips 3%https://t.co/ifkXXe8hDH pic.twitter.com/fzHP6IxAGp— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 28, 2024
The predictions come as Haley charges on in the race, refusing to drop out after losing in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Her campaign has made it clear she will rely on non-conservatives in open primary states to support her moving forward.
Memo from Haley team implies they’re willing to fight through Super Tuesday
…and rely on independents:
“Eleven of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries. Of the 874 delegates available…roughly two thirds are in states with open or semi-open primaries.” pic.twitter.com/wnnayyqcMs
— Philip Melanchthon Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) January 23, 2024
Further, recent polling shows Trump besting Biden not only nationally but in key swing states months ahead of the general election.
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