Voices from the Arab press: What are the true objectives behind the war?

What are the true objectives behind the war?

Annahar, Kuwait, February 2

Since the outset of the ongoing Gaza war, the focus has been on deciphering the true intentions behind the conflict and whether the stated aim of eliminating Hamas truly represents Israel’s underlying objective. It has become increasingly apparent that the conventional approach of seeking victory through direct confrontation may not be feasible, given the nature of the adversary. There is a recognition that Hamas cannot be vanquished by conventional military means, which leads to contemplating the genuine purpose of the war. Amid this contemplation, a disturbing prospect arises: the notion of an undisclosed and enduring goal emerging from the conflict – the permanent desolation of Gaza without any prospect of rehabilitation, essentially consigning it to a state of perpetual ruin and decay. The prospect of Gaza being reduced to a dilapidated territory devoid of any possibility for growth or recovery appears increasingly plausible. The wider context of conflict and displacement within the Arab world further compounds this distressing outlook. The absence of basic amenities and infrastructure, coupled with the disarray and suffering of its inhabitants, portends a future bereft of progress or prosperity, amplifying the sense of despair and hopelessness. This ominous trajectory is reinforced by reports indicating reluctance among numerous nations to participate in the reconstruction of Gaza, citing concerns that any efforts to rebuild would only be undone by future hostilities. Compounding this, the resistance to the implementation of a neutral Arab or international authority to prevent further conflict instills a sense of futility in the prospect of rehabilitation. Moreover, the current and anticipated plight of the people of Gaza is poised to push them toward eventual acquiescence to the notion of relocation, whether to neighboring or distant countries, effectively fulfilling a long-term, albeit insidious, objective of the conflict. Notably, Israel has unequivocally declared its intention to withhold essential resources such as electricity, water, and financial support from Gaza in the future. Furthermore, there are indications of intent to obstruct employment opportunities for Gazans within Israel, exacerbating the deprivation faced by the region. Additionally, the potential reduction of American aid, particularly to UNRWA, which supports a significant portion of Gaza’s populace, further exacerbates the precarious situation. In conclusion, contemplation of the full spectrum of potential outcomes is essential to guard against the unanticipated and ensure preparedness in the face of future uncertainties, a prudent approach given historical precedents. – Sami Abdullatif Al-Nisf 

Hopes for calm in the region

Aletihad, United Arab Emirates, February 2

In the coming days, the trajectory of the Middle East crisis will reveal whether it will gravitate towards perilous escalation or pivot towards a Gaza ceasefire conducive to hostage and prisoner exchange and the inflow of humanitarian assistance. Notably, the stakes are exceptionally high for President Joe Biden, Iran, and numerous influential leaders in the region. Biden faces mounting pressure to take action against Iranian proxies responsible for the lethal assault on a US military base along the Syrian-Jordanian border on January 28, claiming the lives of three American soldiers and wounding more than 20 others. Aggressive factions of the Republican party are advocating for punitive measures targeting Iranian assets, potentially within Iranian territory itself. Nevertheless, such aggressive action poses substantial risks, including the prospect of direct conflict with Iran and the unwelcome possibility of entanglement in yet another military intervention in the region, an outcome that most Americans find undesirable. Expanding the conflict carries significant implications for energy infrastructure and transportation from the Gulf region to global markets, potentially leading to a swift surge in oil prices at a time when price inflation has receded to pre-pandemic levels, imposing serious political ramifications for Biden as he gears up for his reelection campaign. Ironically, the attack on the American base coincides with progress being made on ceasefire proposals between Israel and Hamas, signaling hope for a cessation of hostilities conducive to the release of hostages held by Hamas and the liberation of thousands of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. This truce also holds the promise of facilitating the delivery of essential food and medical supplies to hundreds of thousands of displaced, ailing, and injured Palestinians in Gaza. Moreover, an amelioration of conditions for Palestinians, with the cessation of Israeli air attacks, may assuage heightened emotions triggered by the deluge of harrowing combat footage. This development could instigate restraint from Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria concerning assaults on Israel, the US, and international shipping in the Red Sea, offering respite for China and other nations reliant on maritime trade routes. A protracted ceasefire could pave the way for substantive discussions about the Gaza Strip’s future, including addressing the acute housing shortage and charting a governance framework for the Strip, devoid of direct involvement from the Hamas movement, issues that are bound to incite extensive debates within Israel and could potentially precipitate new general elections culminating in the conclusion of Netanyahu’s political career. Considering the manifold advantages of the ceasefire scenario over escalation and the eruption of a regional war, prospects hinge upon the Biden administration persisting in exerting maximal diplomatic pressure to convince the Israeli government to embrace the ceasefire proposal. This approach is likely to be championed as a preferred alternative to the continuation of the prevailing war of attrition. A pivotal dynamic bolstering the quest for a settlement and concord is the concerted stance of influential families’ lobbies in Israel, emphatically advocating for the prioritization of the release of hostages subjected to perilous conditions since October 7, 2023, by the Israeli coalition government. However, the overarching peril lies in the potential for a missile strike on an American vessel or the loss of numerous American troops, which could effectively trigger a substantial military response, imperiling all prospects for progress in Gaza, with reverberations extending to the region and the world at large.– Geoffrey Kemp

US elections and a ceasefire in Gaza

Ahram, Egypt, February 2

Israel is keenly aware that time is not on its side given various factors with the most critical being the approaching climax of the US presidential campaign. Israeli leaders recognize the unique demands of these elections, with the reelected president historically seeking to defuse contentious issues amid polarized internal opinions and increasing criticism. President Joe Biden, who is no exception to this trend, is perhaps even more compelled to adhere to it. Gaza stands as a key priority among the fronts he will seek to pacify without deviating from his unwavering support for Israel. However, amid the elections, public outrage over alleged Israeli war crimes and the US administration’s consistent backing of Israel has created a vulnerability ripe for exploitation by Biden’s rival, Donald Trump. Signs of the Biden administration’s bid to ease tensions in Gaza have begun to surface, with reports suggesting an impending agreement between Hamas and Israel on fundamental points of contention. This potential agreement could see the release of Israeli prisoners by Hamas in exchange for the liberation of a significant number of Palestinian detainees by Israel. Negotiations continue on the duration of the ceasefire, with Hamas aiming for a longer period, while Israel is resistant to anything beyond a few months. While these reports could be deliberate leaks to gauge reactions, the current climate appears conducive to such a proposal. The suffering in Gaza and its impact on Hamas’s decision-making, coupled with an opportunity for Israel to manage its military setbacks, present a compelling case for all involved parties. – Ahmed Abdel-Tawwab 

Translated by Asaf Zilberfarb.

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