Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is far ahead of his political rivals, and right-wing parties would win another election if it were held today, according to a poll released Wednesday by Israel’s Channel 14.
The result led to speculation that pressure from the Biden administration has united Israelis behind Netanyahu as the only leader capable of standing up to the White House on issues such as a Palestinian state and defeating Hamas.
The poll was conducted in the wake of the departure of politician Gideon Sa’ar from the opposition Blue and White Party, a centrist party that governs with Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition in an emergency government of national unity.
Sa’ar has a habit of leaving parties; he broke with Netanyahu’s Likud Party in protest at Netanyahu’s leadership.
Still, he has some support among voters, and so Channel 14 conducted a poll to gauge Israeli politics after his switch.
אחרי הפרידה מגנץ: כמה מנדטים מקבלת תקווה חדשה של גדעון סער?
לסקר המלא – https://t.co/hn9b6zcJc7#המהדורה_המרכזית@MaggieTabibi @sharongal @Direct_Polls pic.twitter.com/6iVFRCfhnB
— עכשיו 14 (@Now14Israel) March 13, 2024
According to Channel 14 (with help from Google Translate):
As a result of the move, Likud becomes the largest party in Israel and receives 25 seats. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid gains two mandates [seats] and rises to 12. Aryeh Deri’s Shas receives 10 mandates. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu, on the other hand, is hurt by the move and receives only 9, after having received no less than 11 mandates in the previous poll.
…
Otzma Yehudit of Itamar Ben Gabir receives 9 mandates, a decrease of one mandate from the previous poll. Torah Judaism maintains its strength with 8 mandates. Ra’am gets stronger and rises to 6 mandates, Meretz drops to 5, while Hadash Tel receives only four. The religious Zionism of Bezalel Smotrich continues to plunge and also receives only 4 mandates. Balad (2.8%) and Labor (1.9%) do not pass the threshold percentage [for seats].
The result is that the right-wing bloc would win 56 seats (out of 120), and the left-wing parties receive a collective 48 seats. The Arab parties (which are typically nonaligned) would win 10 seats, and Sa’ar’s bloc would receive six seats.
While it is not clear that a government would form — given that Sa’ar’s political raison d’être is to oppose Netanyahu, meaning that he could deny Netanyahu a 61-seat majority — it is clear that the parties of the left cannot replace him.
Moreover, the poll found that Netanyahu is preferred to Blue and White Leader Benny Gantz by 47% to 37%, and that he is preferred over opposition leader Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party by an even wider margin of 48% to 28%.
The evident support for Netanyahu flies in the face of an assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies that the Netanyahu government faces collapse — a conclusion whose publication was interpreted by the Israeli government as a threat.
Netanyahu’s strong support also contradicts Biden’s claim that Netanyahu is “hurting Israel more than he’s helping,” and Vice President Kamala Harris’s attempt to distinguish between the Israeli government and the Israeli people.
Biden has tried to press Israel to accept a Palestinian state after the war, which Netanyahu has said would be a massive reward to Hamas for terror. Biden has also pressured Israel not to attack Hamas in its last stronghold in the town of Rafah.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken published a post calling for a ceasefire and a hostage deal. He did not mention the goal of defeating Hamas.
We’re intensely engaged every single day to get a ceasefire agreement that will get the hostages out, get more aid in, and create a pathway for a more lasting, secure solution. pic.twitter.com/UwyHQ7mfv7
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) March 14, 2024
While Israelis want a hostage deal, most do not want one at the cost of losing the war.
It is important to note that Israeli polls diverge widely in their reported support for Netanyahu. One recent poll that showed Netanyahu with low support also showed Israelis prefer Donald Trump to Biden as U.S. president, 44% to 30%.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the recent book, “The Zionist Conspiracy (and how to join it),” now available on Audible. He is also the author of the e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
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