In the months before October 7, Israel was convinced that Hamas was deterred in Gaza and that the terrorist group was apparently focused on its own internal issues. This narrative had been told to Israel several times before. It will take a long time to fully understand how Israel was lured into a false belief that Hamas was not only deterred but that it posed so little threat that a few hundred soldiers could be left on the border on October 7 to face thousands of armed terrorists.
While Israel will need to investigate its own failures, it’s plausible that the attack on October 7 was not only an intelligence failure of Israel. Hamas is hosted by Qatar, a major non-NATO ally of the US. Doha is also close to many other western countries.
Turkey, a member of NATO backs Hamas. As such, two of the West’s closest allies in the Middle East are both closely connected to Hamas. How did Hamas plan the worst terrorist attack in history and the greatest mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust while also being hosted by western allies? How is it possible that western allies hosted and backed Hamas while western governments knew nothing about the plans for October 7?
These are important questions because October 7 was certainly not in the interests of Israel or Gazans. More than 200,000 Israelis had to be evacuated in the wake of October 7, due to the Hamas massacre and Hezbollah supporting Hamas with rocket fire.
‘Ceasefire’ calls amid post-Oct. 7 realities
More than 1200 people were killed in Israel on October 7 and 253 taken hostage. Israel’s response to October 7 has led to a huge war in Gaza. One would think that most countries in the region and also in the West would have wanted to avoid this war. Today activists across the West call for a “ceasefire” and the Gaza war is considered a major conflict that could lead to famine.
All of this could have been prevented. October 7 was clearly a large plan that could not possibly have been carried out by simply a handful of terrorists in Gaza. The evidence for this is that Hamas has never carried out such a complex large attack in the past. In fact, Hamas has only recently become so powerful that it could conceive of such an attack.
Reports have shown that Hamas cyber and intelligence capabilities expanded in recent years. It also expanded its rocket arsenal and abilities to fire large barrages simultaneously. It also expanded its knowledge of Israel’s border fence and sought to use new methods to outsmart artificial intelligence-driven technologies. Most of this type of sophistication would appear to point to foreign support and advise.
The role of Iran
Hamas may be hosted and backed by two western allies, but its main backer is Iran. After October 7 Russia and China also did not condemn Hamas and have appeared to back and excuse its attack. In addition after October 7 the Iranian government sent its foreign minister to Doha to meet the Hamas high command.
Is it reasonable to conclude that Iran, Russia and other countries were backing Hamas, and were not surprised by October 7, and no western government or any regional government got wind of October 7? Even if it is possible that they didn’t know the exact date of the October 7 attack, it’s still reasonable to ask for soul searching in the West and among western allies in the region about why October 7 wasn’t prevented. However, evidence shows, that after October 7, there was no pressure by western governments on their allies in the region to distance themselves from Hamas. In the opposite, it appears the West has encouraged countries such as Qatar to host Hamas.
The more Hamas attacks Israel, even killing more Jews than at any time since the Holocaust, the more the West’s allies host and back Hamas. Why is this? Why is there a reward for hosting Hamas? Instead of soul searching over how October 7 could have been prevented or what intelligence signals were missed, most western governments appear to back Israel’s response and also back their allies in hosting Hamas.
Instead of asking “why wasn’t more done to prevent this” and “why didn’t we know” and “why didn’t our allies in the region warn us,” the response appears to be to back both sides in this conflict. That means, backing Israel and backing countries that host and back Hamas. It’s unclear how this serves the interests of Israel or Gazans who are stuck in the middle of this war.
There seems to be a place for soul searching in the West. If countries want to stop wars in the world, they should be doing more to prevent them and figure out how such wars can be planned right under their noses. Media reports have said that Iran was not aware of the October 7 plan. However, Iran and many other countries rushed to back Hamas and did not condemn the attack. In fact Iran immediately pressured Hezbollah and the Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria to join the attack. If Iran was surprised by the attack and had no foreknowledge, then why did it rush to exploit the attack and push for more attacks?
This leads to another key question about October 7. Many governments in the region have venerable intelligence services. How did none of them know more about October 7? Why wasn’t there more surprise in those countries and condemnation for the massive attack? These questions should be posed to Jordan, Egypt and other states.
The goal of intelligence services should be to provide warning for these kinds of regional disasters. Before October 7 the goal of many governments, on paper at least, was regional integration. Regional integration doesn’t work when massive wars, like the one in Gaza, take place. Therefore it’s worth wondering how it’s possible that none of the countries that were backing regional integration, from the West to the Abraham Accords countries, were able to prevent this massive war. Instead, they all appear to have been sleepwalking into a trap set by Iran, Russia, China and other countries. The decision by the West to encourage Doha to continue to host Hamas would also seem to mean that another October 7 is only a matter of time. If the goal is to prevent large wars like the one in Gaza, it’s not clear how the West’s empowerment of Hamas, via its allies, is helping the region.
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