Over the last week the Israel Defense Forces have been carrying out a complex raid at Shifa hospital, which is a large and sprawling compound. The raid began a week ago on the evening of March 17, and over the course of seven days, the IDF has been combing buildings in the area, clashing with terrorists, and detaining suspects.
Reports say that around 800 suspects were found and 500 of them are confirmed members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This makes the largest number of terrorists found in one spot since the war began and signifies one of the IDF’s most important and complex operations of this type since October 7.
All of this requires a larger spotlight. How is it possible that so many terrorists, mostly men in their twenties to fifties, all came to this hospital over the last months? They had to have come in the last months, because the IDF first operated to clear the area around Shifa of terrorists in November. This means that these men found their way back by infiltrating the hospital These are men with records, some of them involved in terrorism going back many years, including plots in the West Bank linked to the 2014 war and also the October 7 attacks.
The IDF has emphasized that it found numerous Hamas commanders and also a large swath of the PIJ command at Shifa. “At the beginning of the war, we destroyed the underground infrastructure dug under the hospital, and we confiscated military equipment and weapons hidden in it. The terrorists’ command center at the Shifa Hospital was dealt with then. The terrorists fled in the previous operation when we called to evacuate the compound,” IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on March 21.
He also noted that the IDF operated differently to catch Hamas by surprise this time. “We raided the compound by surprise. The operation, led by the 162nd Division and carried out by special forces units led by Shayetet 13, in full cooperation on the ground, shoulder to shoulder with the ISA and Unit 504 for intelligence extraction in the field. We used deception tactics in this operation, and it was this that led to the success and apprehension of all 358 terrorists, and more inside this compound who haven’t managed to escape. This led to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad being severely damaged as a result of the operation,” Hagari said.
We know that after the raid began the terrorists retreated to key areas of the hospital and holed up in the emergency room, the maternity ward, and the Shifa burn ward. This fits the usual modus operandi of Hamas, who see hospitals as key assets and nodes in their command and control of Gaza. They believe the IDF would not want to operate in a hospital, and would end up with the complex being destroyed. The IDF said on March 24 that Hamas has caused damage to many areas of the hospital.
Hamas clearly felt safe at the hospital, but they knew that Israel had raided this area in November. For instance, in November, the IDF exposed a tunnel system under the Qatari building at the hospital. The IDF had to re-enter the Qatari building again during the raid over the last year. The fact Hamas felt secure in this area may relate to another recent raid by the IDF targeting the Hamad Towers near Khan Younis. This project, funded by Qatar, was supposed to provide nice suburban apartments for Gazans, but Hamas appears to have infiltrated the towers over the past few months. In both cases, Hamas appears to have felt that they were safe at Shifa hospital and at the Hamad towers. Now they have lost almost 1,000 terrorists, when including those killed and detained in the two operations over the past weeks.
What does Hamas take into account?
It’s important to look at the timing here to understand the likely Hamas calculations and considerations. In early March, reports indicated that Israel would be pressured into a ceasefire before Ramadan, meaning that the ceasefire was supposed to start around March 10. However, Hamas increased its demands and would not provide a list of living hostages, as Hamas believed that Israel would be pressured into a ceasefire without hostages being released. Israel reduced operations in Gaza and redeployed some units, but the IDF also stepped up raids in the Gaza Strip, including raids in the last month in areas the IDF cleared back in November. This included a raid into the Al-Shati refugee camp and then into Zaytun. However, the IDF also warned those in Zaytun about the raid before it happened.
Hamas assumed they would get a warning if the IDF was coming back to Shifa hospital, and they also assumed that the IDF was facing pressure after having raided the Nasser hospital in Khan Younis. Hamas figured Israel would not go back to Shifa. Therefore, almost 1,000 terrorists appear to have congregated at the hospital complex. On the ground, these large numbers of men congregating together would have been clearly visible. Additionally, they would appear well-fed and not like the other tens of thousands of people sheltering near the hospital. Another important distinction would be that these men would have been armed; they did not need to be armed at all times, as various weapons caches were stored in various places in the hospital.
Hamas operates like a mafia and mafia members don’t always need to be armed. The weapons are stored in easy-to-reach locations so members can get to them if they need to. But Hamas would have felt secure at Shifa, like returning to their home, so they did not need weapons. They assumed the ceasefire would let them set up a command center at the hospital and work to return their control over northern Gaza, where an estimated 30,000 people are.
Hamas appears to operate in Gaza not only in plain clothes, and without weapons, except when it needed weapons. For instance, Hamas terrorists have been involved in killing civilians who are trying to access aid, and it appears Hamas is responsible for some of the incidents at the Kuwaiti roundabout near Gaza City. This means Hamas arms it men when it needs to, but the men will often mill around without weapons on hand. When the IDF raided Shifa, at least 180 terrorists were eliminated in gun fights. The terrorists also have mortars nearby.
The overall picture that emerges is that Hamas returned to Shifa because it believed a ceasefire would be announced in early March. However, when the ceasefire didn’t materialize, Hamas terrorists likely consulted with senior Hamas leaders, who are based both in Gaza and abroad. These terrorists likely heard from senior leadership that the West was pushing for the ceasefire and that Hamas needn’t worry too much, and they would soon be reconstituting in northern Gaza. The surprise raid set back their plans to retake pockets of northern Gaza. However, Hamas is still operating in northern and central Gaza, the site of the IDF’s presence, and still heavily active in the southern region of the Strip. For instance, Hamas fired rockets on March 25 from Deir al-Balah in central Gaza at Ashdod, the first rocket fire of this kind in two months.
Hamas understands the timeline in Gaza. It reads western media and watches debates at the UN and news coverage. In short, Hamas is waiting for a ceasefire, and the group knows it is hosted abroad by two western allies. It assumes that its hosts and patrons will help bring it back to power in Gaza, and help it come to power in the West Bank. For Hamas, places like Shifa are the natural nodes in their empire of terror in Gaza that they need to reconstitute to take power again.
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