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S&P cuts Israel’s long-term ratings to A+ from AA- on heightened geopolitical risk

Ratings agency S&P Global on Thursday cut Israel’s long-term ratings to A-plus from AA-minus after the confrontation with Iran heightened last weekend and amidst the already elevated geopolitical risks for Israel.

“We forecast that Israel’s general government deficit will widen to 8% of GDP in 2024, mostly as a result of increased defense spending,” S&P Global said in its statement.

What does the negative outlook reflect?

The negative outlook reflects the risk that the Israel-Hamas war and the confrontation with Hezbollah could escalate or affect Israel’s economy more than the agency currently expects.

“We currently see several possible military escalation risks, including a more substantial, direct, and sustained military confrontation with Iran,” the statement said.

 IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, January 2024. (credit: IDF)
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, January 2024. (credit: IDF)

On Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel, an attack which could trigger a major escalation between the regional archenemies, with the US pledging to back Israel.

Earlier this month, Fitch removed Israel from “rating watch negative” and kept its A-plus rating, but cited Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza as a risk.

In February, Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating on war risks. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that decision was not based on sound economic reasoning and was tantamount to a pessimistic “manifesto”.

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