In the event that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has died or has been severely incapacitated in a helicopter crash, “it would be hard to find someone worse,” former IDF intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
In terms of the impact on the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, Hayman, who is currently the Executive Director of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), said, “It would have no strategic impact, just that it would be less of a headache in choosing the next president.”
He noted that the Iranian president as a rule is “an administrative political position and that there are set procedures for replacing him.”
What will happen if Raisi is dead?
Former IDF intelligence chief Aharon Zeevi Farkash agreed with Hayman that if Raisi is dead, it would have little impact because only Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes major strategic decisions, not the president.
Despite those views, Khamenei is 85 years old, has been in poor health for years, and Raisi has been viewed in recent years as the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei.
Khamenei took considerable measures to ensure Raisi’s two election wins, disqualifying several other former top senior officials who might have presented him with a serious challenge.
If Raisi is dead, a new underground race to be Khamenei’s successor could be reignited, even though Raisi did not necessarily have the top job locked up by any means.
It has been reported by Iranian and global media that Raisi may have died in a helicopter crash, although details are still sparse.
Israel views Iran as managing the conflict against it through Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen, Syria, and occasionally Iraq, and as of April 14, also by the direct firing of ballistic missiles and drones.
Iran expert Raz Zimmt of both INSS and the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center said that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would step into Raisi’s role as president in the event that Raisi died.
Next, Mokhber, 69, would work with a special select staff as well as election authorities to set new elections within 50 days.
Mokhber is said to have achieved his high position by way of his having run much of Khamenei’s finances for years, as well as being a lead expert for the ayatollah and Raisi on running a “resistance” economy to keep Iran afloat despite years of global sanctions.
He is also said to be deeply involved in corrupt patronage handouts to keep various constituencies close to the regime’s top leaders and served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps medical division decades ago.
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