Because virtually all the polling firms publish essentially the same results, there is little doubt that if an honest election were held today Donald Trump would handily defeat Joe Biden in the Electoral College vote. Further, as long as an increasingly senescent, unpopular, and compromised Joe Biden remains the Democrat nominee, Trump should win at least 270-290 electoral votes (270 needed to win the presidency) in November despite the inevitable Democrat duplicity, lawfare, and voter fraud and machinations.
If faced with the potential scenario of not being able to replace Biden, the Democrats are going to single-mindedly focus on races in both the House and Senate. Not only to block Trump’s agenda as well as his judicial and cabinet appointees, but to reprise their “Impeachment Follies” of 2018-2020. Losing to Donald Trump again would unleash a virulent strain of Trump Derangement Syndrome. When combined with control of one or both houses of Congress, there would be four years of unmitigated national chaos.
While so many are focusing on the presidential sweepstakes, it cannot be forgotten that without control of both Houses of Congress there can be no overarching rollback of the disastrous policies of the Biden Administration and the Democrats. Which raises the question: what is currently happening with congressional races throughout the country?
Five recent polls revealed that when Americans were asked which party they prefer to control Congress, 45.4% favored Democrats and 44% favored Republicans. Despite the ongoing unfathomable financial and societal chaos, Democrats are still viewed favorably by a substantial segment of the electorate.
Control of the Senate will be key to what happens after November 5, 2024. As the Republican caucus will still include two implacable anti-Trumpers (Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins), the Republicans need to win at a minimum three seats to bring their number to 52 or, if possible, four seats in order to be at a more comfortable 53.
While everyone is elated over the polls reflecting Trump’s dominance versus Biden, what do the polls reflect in winnable Senate toss-up elections in states Trump is leading by substantial margins?
- In Arizona, Kari Lake, is losing to a radical Democrat, Ruben Gallego, 49% to 36% or a difference of 13 percentage points.
- In Ohio, Bernie Moreno, is losing to incumbent Democrat Sharrod Brown 44% to 37%, a margin of seven points.
- In Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick is behind incumbent Democrat Bob Casey by five percentage points 46% to 41%.
- In Michigan, a hotbed of voter fraud, Mike Rogers is behind Democrat progressive Elise Slotkin 39% to 42%.
- In Nevada, Sam Brown is behind incumbent Democrat Jackie Rosen by two points, 38% to 40%.
- In Montana, Tim Sheehy is currently beating incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by three percentage points, 48% to 45%.
- While there are no recent polls in West Virginia between Republican Jim Justice and Democrat Glenn Elliot, it is anticipated that Justice holds a significant lead over Elliot and will win easily in November.
Currently, the Republican candidates have a substantial lead in just one of seven winnable Senate seats. When the impact of Democrat voting fraud and manipulation is factored into the equation, the Republican candidates need to defeat their Democrat opponents by a minimum of four to five percentage points.
Why are the polls so different for Trump versus individual Senate races? If one accepts the underlying veracity of the polls reflecting Trump’s lead in these states, then the same consideration must be given for the senatorial polls. Some would argue that the Republicans have chosen “bad” candidates; however, it is highly unlikely that virtually all the Republican candidates are inept.
The answer: the Trump v. Biden polls are a referendum on Joe Biden and reflect the disdain the majority of the American electorate feels towards him. The current polling results in these states are solely a phenomenon of Donald Trump versus a frail, unpopular, and grossly incompetent Joe Biden.
Even more uncertain than the Senate is the outcome of which party will control the House in 2025-26. The current consensus among five political forecasting groups is that there are 181 “safe” and 21 “likely or lean” Republican seats for a total of 210. Among the Democrats there are 166 “safe” and 36 “likely or lean Democrat seats or 202. The current estimate of “toss-up” seats is 23.
Thus, Republican control of the House may well be determined by the outcome of 23 “toss-up” elections and the highly doubtful scenario of not losing any in the “likely or lean” category. The Republicans need to win at least 14-16 of the “toss-up” seats to have a workable majority of at least 5 to 8 seats and avoid the seemingly never-ending chaos in the current Congress wherein the Republicans currently have a mere one seat majority.
In the 2022 mid-terms, 20 House seats were decided by 6,000 votes or less and another 12 by 10,000 votes or less. Of the 32 seats, Democrats won 19 and the Republicans 13.
Additionally, there is not only Democrat ballot harvesting and mail-in ballot manipulation to consider, but the potential impact of illegal immigrants voting in the 2024 election.
A Yale-MIT analysis in 2018 estimated there were 22 million illegal immigrants in the United States. Since that time at least another 10-12 million have entered the country for a total of 32-34 million currently residing in America. Just 10% of them (3.0 to 3.4 million) casting illegal ballots could swing elections in numerous House districts and Senate races.
The fate of the nation and the importance of winning the presidency in 2024 cannot be overstated; but control of both Houses of Congress is equally important. In 2020, more than 74.2 million cast votes for Donald Trump, but only 72.4 million voted for Republican candidates in all the House races, a gap of nearly 1.8 million votes. That gap has to be significantly closed in 2024.
First, Trump and the Republican National Committee should have as a centerpiece of the overall campaign the vital importance of controlling both Houses of Congress. Second, millions of Republican voters must, at least temporarily, abandon standing on so-called “principle” and refusing to vote for a Republican Senate or House candidate because they may not be in perfect lockstep with everything the voter believes in.
The key to winning in 2024 is a massive turnout combined with voting oversight and monitoring as a means of blunting the impact of Democrat voter fraud and manipulation. A turnout that must also include voting in all Senate and House races.
Image credit Picryl
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