Memorial Day marks about six months before voters head to the polls, and with the presidential campaigns beginning in earnest, former President Donald Trump holds a national lead over President Joe Biden, reversing his lead from Memorial Day 2023.
Three polls in May 2023 found Biden held a lead over Trump, a contrast to Trump’s dominant nationwide lead one year later:
-
- Biden +2
- May 20-22, 2023
- Biden +2
- May 18-22, 2023
- Biden +1
- May 22-24, 2023
Fast forward to 2024, when Trump holds a lead over Biden after trailing him in nearly all establishment media polls in 2023:
- Trump +8
- May 15-16, 2024
- Trump +5
- May 13-16, 2024
- Trump +1
- May 19-21, 2024
People appear to have made up their minds about Biden. His approval rating has remained below 40 percent since 2022. It currently stands at 35 percent and was 38 percent last Memorial Day. Presidents historically need a 50 percent approval rating to win reelection.
Several political variables entered the picture since last May. They include: (1) Trump sustaining several indictments; (2) Hamas attacking Israel on October 7; (3) Americans continue to struggle to keep up with soaring costs in Biden’s economy, the number one issue for voters; and (4) the southern border became a top issue among voters.
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The variables appear to have either hurt Biden or helped Trump. Democrats soured over Biden’s handing of October 7. Americans blame Biden for the sluggish Main Street economy and for seemingly endless migration, while the indictments gave Trump a boost.
The variables appear to have made Trump’s presidency more attractive. Since Trump left office, voters’ view of his presidency improved nine points, a New York Times/Siena poll found in April:
- 42 percent said Trump’s tenure was “mostly good for America,” compared to only 25 percent for Biden.
- More voters (up 11 points) regard Trump as a “safe choice” than previously viewed in 2016.
- More voters (up 10 points) approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
- More voters (up 9 points) think Trump left the country better off.
President Joe Biden attends the NAACP Detroit Branch annual “Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner” in Detroit, Michigan on May 19, 2024. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
Looking forward, the next six months will determine who wins reelection. Debates must take place, and both parties will hold conventions. Trump’s criminal trial will end with ramifications. Hunter Biden will likely stand trial for alleged gun and tax violations. The political landscape could change with a “black swan event.” An October surprise could occur as it did in 2016 (Russia Hoax) and 2020 (Laptop from Hell).
While Trump appears to hold all the momentum on Memorial Day, the Democrats and the administrative state will not stop fighting.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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