On May 20, the day Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te was sworn in, China provocatively sailed seven warships near the island and flew six military planes into its airspace. Three days later, China began Joint Sword 2024A, a military drill simulating a complete blockade. The island was menaced by some 20 warships maneuvering at high speed and dozens of warplanes whizzing overhead. Some planes and ships were armed with live missiles and conducted mock missile strikes.
Lai believes — as do many strategic experts — that China’s ambition to annex Taiwan is an ever-present threat. In fact, Chinese defense officials brazenly called the two-day exercises a “strong punishment” to combat the arrogance of ‘Taiwan independence’ and “test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks, and occupy key areas.”
The U.S. must therefore step up to the plate to defend Taiwan’s vibrant democracy. There are at least three reasons for doing so. First, a China-controlled Taiwan will intensify Chinese aggression in the area, compromising America’s regional allies. Second, not supporting Taiwan will send allies the message that they cannot depend on America. Third, Taiwan leads in semiconductor manufacture and emerging AI technologies; a Chinese invasion or takeover by other means could ravage the global economy by upending the microchip supply chain.
The immediate provocation for Joint Sword 2024A was Lai’s election and his inaugural speech. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) asserts that Taiwan is a sovereign nation, so China favors the rival Kuomintang (KMT). In the speech, Lai urged China to end political and military intimidation, pledging to neither provoke nor yield to Beijing. He said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait were “not subordinate to each other.” China refers to him as a “dangerous separatist” who will lead Taiwan to “war and decline.”
Saber-rattling, gnawing incursions, threats, and commercial sanctions are a staple of the Chinese playbook for dealing with countries seen as rivals. Chinese fighters violate Taiwanese airspace almost daily. Cyberattacks originating in China — increasing of late — have always targeted Taiwan’s government websites. And days before Lai’s inauguration, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sanctioned five Taiwanese political commentators and declared three U.S. companies unreliable — Boeing, General Dynamics Land Systems, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems.
More insidious, though, are China’s strategies of political warfare, exploitation of the legal ambiguity of Taiwan’s status at the United Nations, the creation of a fifth column, and what a joint report of the American Enterprise Institute, Coalition Defense of Taiwan, and Institute for the Study of War calls a “short-of-war coercion course of action.”
President Xi Jinping may have called for deepening “war and combat planning to increase the chances of victory in actual combat,” likely driven by his desire to wrest full control over the military. But the CCP recognizes that a kinetic war over Taiwan would be unwise. For it would put China in direct confrontation with the U.S., Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, and the North Atlantic Alliance. Such a war would also be unnecessary. For the CCP believes that the weiqi strategy of winning without fighting — using hybrid methods and a coercion campaign — will be both appropriate and effective.
Accordingly, China wages political warfare through propaganda and disinformation, winning over elites who command influence, political subversion, and economic actions. By manipulating information, it aims to change public perception and attitudes. Disinformation is fed to vulnerable audiences, sowing confusion and diminishing resistance to the CCP. For this, it also uses cyber-ops and pliable media groups. Wealthy Taiwanese with financial interests in China are co-opted to leverage influence. And fringe political parties and organizations are funded to spread pro-CCP narratives.
Lawfare works at several levels, from the international downward. Taiwan’s status at the United Nations is a subject of legal ambiguity. The U.N. General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971 says that the representatives of the government of the People’s Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the U.N. There is no mention of Taiwan — officially known as the Republic of China — or its status or right to self-determination. China has mischaracterized the resolution as affirming that there is only one China, and in 2007, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon strengthened this claim by declaring that the U.N. “considers Taiwan for all purposes to be an integral part of the People’s Republic of China.” China could use this interpretation to use force for the unification of Taiwan and prevent U.S. action in the island’s defense.
At the local level, China engages in gray zone ops. These include aerial and maritime encroachments on Taiwanese territory to erode the concept of sovereignty and security; ship inspections in or near Taiwanese waters, amounting to a virtual blockade; and kinetic provocations on Taiwan’s offshore islands. Besides, China uses import bans and denial of market access and investment incentives against Taiwan and its partners.
A robust fifth-column network has been established by China inside Taiwan’s national security apparatus and political system, according to the Global Taiwan Institute. High-ranking retired generals are invited to China and influenced to spread defeatist propaganda and erode confidence in the Taiwanese military. From 2008 onward, the network was expanded to include civil society groups, students, workers, cultural groups taking part in cross-strait programs. Organized criminal gangs, too, were drawn in. Between 2000 and 2006, 62 espionage cases were reported, and in 2023, a retired major revealed a 10-officer spy network. Besides cyberattacks, these colluders could easily be deployed to sabotage power and water supply and telecom networks.
Finally, the “short-of-war coercion” plan, which, according to the joint report, is aimed at solving the “problem of continued resistance to unification.” It was created over the course of a year, examining previous and ongoing coercion campaigns, and covers a wide range of actions designed to decrease the Taiwanese government’s power and dampen the public’s desire for autonomy. These include cyber warfare to scupper infrastructure and isolate the public.
The plan strongly banks on America hesitating to come to Taiwan’s aid for fear of alienating China and endangering Sino-American trade and other economic activities. According to the report, China believes that if America remains uninvolved, the confidence of the Taiwanese will be shattered, for they will realize that the rest of the world will not intervene either. This, it hopes, will make the Taiwanese amenable to unification.
According to the report, the best way to contain China’s ambitions is for the U.S. and Taiwan to strengthen their ties and forcefully pursue an information war to counter China’s campaign of pressure, manipulation, and misinformation.
Lai proudly spoke of Taiwan’s accomplishments as a democracy and an independent economic power. Calling for support from other democracies, he said, “Let us work together to show the world our determination to protect democratic Taiwan.” So far, the U.S. has not responded vigorously to bolster his message of strength. It must, lest its allies — and all free countries — think they cannot rely on the U.S.’s support if their freedom is challenged.
It has been reported that Taiwan’s chief semiconductor manufacturer, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which supplies microchips to Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and many other electronic giants and other manufacturers worldwide, has installed remote “kill switches” to render its machines inoperable in the event of a Chinese attack.
Taiwan, which makes more than 90% of the world’s microchips, counts on America to ensure that it does not have to flip the kill switches on those machines — and that China does not flip the kill switch on Taiwan’s democracy.
image, Pixabay license.
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