If an election were held today, Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party would still win the most seats. Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party is closing the gap, according to a new Channel 12 poll published Wednesday night.
The poll also claimed that, for the first time since the war with Hamas began, Netanyahu has surpassed Gantz as being seen as better suited for the prime ministerial role.
The poll surveyed 503 participants aged 18 or older.
Which parties would win if Israel went to elections today?
According to the poll, if Israel were to head to elections today, the National Unity Party led by Gantz would be the largest political party with 25 seats. At the same time, Netanyahu’s Likud Party, which narrowed the gap, would get 21 seats.
Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party came in third, winning a projected 13 seats. Next came Labor, after the primary victory of Yair Golan, which was projected to win 10 seats together with Meretz. Also projected to win 10 seats are Arye Deri’s Shas Party and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party was set to win nine seats, while the haredi United Torah Judaism Party was set to win seven.
After that came Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, alongside the Arab parties of Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al, which were all set to win five seats.
At the bottom came Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope – The United Right Party and Sami Abu Shehadeh’s Balad Party, failing to cross the electoral threshold.
Ultimately, the coalition as it is now would get 52 seats, while the opposition—even without Hadash-Ta’al—would get a majority of 63 seats.
How many seats would a new right-wing party get in an election?
The survey also examined a possible party formed by several center-right figures. These included Liberman and Sa’ar, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, and former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen. This new party would win 16 seats in a hypothetical election.
This would have electoral implications for other parties. While some, like the Likud, would stay the same, others would see their numbers drop. Gantz’s National Unity Party would only win 21 seats, the same as the Likud, while Yesh Atid would get just 12 and the Religious Zionist Party would only get four.
But overall, the opposition would emerge even stronger, boasting 64 seats compared to the coalition’s 51.
Netanyahu seen as a more suitable prime minister
The biggest shakeup in the poll was over suitability for the premiership. Netanyahu surpassed Gantz in the public eye for the first time since the war started, with 36% compared to Gantz’s 30%.
The National Unity leader isn’t even in second place – rather, former prime minister Bennett being seen as more suitable for the role of prime minister.
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