The Biden administration made it clear to Israel that the US does not believe that a “limited war” in Lebanon or a “small regional war” are realistic options, as it would be difficult to prevent them from expanding.
The US warned of a scenario in which Lebanon would be flooded with terrorists from pro-Iranian militias coming from Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen.
The Biden administration advised Israel in recent weeks against the idea that a “limited war” could be waged in Lebanon and warned that such a move could push Iran to intervene – this is what two senior American officials and an Israeli official briefed on the talks told Walla.
Why it’s important:
- The exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, which has been going on since October 7, has escalated dramatically in the last two weeks, which has caused senior officials in the IDF and the cabinet to call for a significant expansion of the fighting against Hezbollah.
- Senior American and Israeli officials said that the IDF and the Defense Ministry are increasingly concerned that the situation in Lebanon is reaching a turning point. The US and France have tried to find a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions on the border but have not yet made progress.
- Preventing an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah that could lead to widespread destruction in Lebanon and Israel was a central goal of the Biden administration in its efforts to prevent the fighting in Gaza from expanding into a much wider regional conflict.
- The Biden administration believes that it will be impossible to restore peace to the Israel-Lebanon border without a cease-fire in Gaza.
In the news center:
- The exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along the border has been steadily escalating for the past eight months. Many of the Israeli settlements near the border are deserted.
- More than 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated from the area after Hezbollah began attacking northern Israel on October 8 have not yet returned to their homes.
- Both sides have increased the range of their attacks in recent weeks. Hezbollah launched drones and rockets at military targets up to 50 km from the border.
- Earlier this week, Hezbollah attacks and extremely hot weather ignited massive forest fires across northern Israel that took more than 48 hours to extinguish.
- The fires and growing public criticism of the government over the war of attrition in the North led to an emergency meeting of the War Cabinet on Tuesday night.
The big picture:
- A senior security official said that the situation has been escalating since May because Hezbollah was able to carry out successful attacks using UAVs against Israeli targets that the IDF was unable to intercept.
- At the same time, Hezbollah began launching “Burkan” rockets with warheads of 1,000-500 kg of explosive material, which caused heavy damage to IDF bases along the border.
What they say:
- State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Wednesday that the US remains “deeply concerned about the risk of escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border.”
- “We are engaged in intensive diplomatic talks and intensive diplomatic negotiations to try to prevent this conflict from escalating beyond control,” he said.
- Miller added, “Israel has been claiming to us privately for a long time – and they have said this publicly as well – that their preferred solution to this conflict is diplomatic.”
What next:
- At the War Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, no decisions were made, but the IDF presented several options for expanding the fighting, including a ground invasion aimed at driving Hezbollah’s Radwan force away from the border, an Israeli senior official said.
- He emphasized that since October 7, the instructions the IDF received from the political echelon were to focus on defeating Hamas in Gaza and to avoid a war in Lebanon. The Israeli official said that this policy change could have far-reaching consequences.
- The Israeli official said that a war with Hezbollah or a limited operation in Lebanon would have “enormous consequences for Israel,” and after such an operation would cost many lives and resources, it would most likely lead to an agreement similar to the one Israel and Lebanon are trying to achieve now.
- “We need to understand this before making decisions,” said the Israeli official.
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