Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel on Monday after being sent urgently by President Biden to mediate the situation on the northern border. Biden is under the opinion that within days, Israel will make key decisions about the conflict with Hezbollah.
The clocks are ticking. The operation in Rafah, despite the efforts of Israel’s political echelon to prolong it further, is in its final stages.
The IDF understands that a solution needs to be reached for the northern border, a region of land essentially abandoned by the State of Israel and the Israeli government.
The destruction of the North
It seems doubtful that the northern communities can be rebuilt in the next decade. Clearly, the North will not return to the way it was. Many of the residents will not return, and those who return doubt whether they will find employment. The education system in the North is in the process of disintegration.
Tourism will take years to recover, and it is unlikely to get back to pre-war levels. Restoring the destroyed communities and rejuvenating the fields, orchards, and vineyards will take decades. And let’s not forget the forests of the north that were razed to the ground.
The behavior of the Israeli political echelon in Gaza has resulted in the destruction of the North, in the destruction of the lives of one hundred thousand Israeli refugees, and in regional infrastructural damage, all for a big display of military and political incompetence.
The end of the fighting in Rafah would go a small way to restoring the damage done by the government to the North.
Last night, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari was tasked with delivering a message “to the international community”, aimed at Hezbollah, Iran and the US.
“Hezbollah’s increasing aggression brings us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation – one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region,” he said. “Hezbollah is jeopardizing the future of Lebanon – so that it can be a shield for Hamas. When we say that we will not allow October 7th to happen again on any of our borders, we mean that Israel will take all the necessary measures to protect its citizens until security is restored on the Lebanese border.”
Immediately after Hagari’s statement, I asked sources whether he spoke with the government’s backing or if, like his speech 12 hours before about the opening of a humanitarian corridor in the South, it was a surprise to even the defense minister and the prime minister himself, who claimed he “didn’t know about the move.”
With all due respect to Hagari (and respect is due), the question is why he was sent to recite such a meaningless, inconsequential threat. The truth is that if Israel wants to convey a message, it should not send Brigadier General Hagari in the middle of the night to speak in front of the cameras in English. Just move the operational divisions from Gaza to the North.
As you know, Waze has been down in the North for months. Because of this, Hezbollah does not know where traffic jams are due to convoys of tank carriers. They fill in the gaps with a daily launch of UAVs for intelligence-gathering purposes.
When Nasrallah sees the parking lots in the North filled with thousands of tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers, he will realize the gravity of Israel’s intentions.
Then, he and the Iranians will pare back their strategy. And then Israel will actually know if an agreement mediated by Amos Hochstein can be reached without fighting or if fighting is possible without the mediation of Amos Hochstein.
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