Dr. Omer Dostri, a research specialist at the “Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security,” the “Eytan Center” and the “Israel Defense and Security Forum,” spoke with Maariv and addressed the future of fighting against Hezbollah and the level of preparedness of the Israeli home front.
What is the significance of the visit of the special envoy of the President of the United States, Amos Hochstein, to Israel and Lebanon?
“The special envoy of the US administration, Amos Hochstein, has already held several rounds of meetings in Israel and Lebanon since October 7, with the aim of preventing further escalation and the start of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.
Hochstein is trying to reach a comprehensive agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which would involve an Israeli (military) withdrawal from along the border, which Hezbollah claims belongs to Lebanon, and not just an agreement to prevent escalation.
Hochstein has failed in all the previous attempts, mainly due to Hezbollah’s refusal to withdraw its forces from below the Litani river, so it is expected that this diplomatic round will also fail.
Why is political order not possible in Lebanon?
“It is hard to believe that Hezbollah will withdraw its forces beyond Litani on its own initiative and without any coercion. As far as the group is concerned, it is achieving strategic achievements against Israel, such as striking military bases and infrastructures, striking soldiers, and forcing the evacuation of Israeli civilians from entire parts of the North of the country. All this while maintaining a threatening balance of deterrence against Israel.”
Dostri stressed: “In general, the idea of Hezbollah withdrawing back past the Litani River is based on an outdated and naive ideal that vanished on October 7. Even if Hezbollah does withdraw beyond the Litani, the chances of which, as mentioned, are slim to non-existent, then it will be able to quickly return to its positions in the South, and it is likely that Israel will not respond again. This is due to its reluctance to go to war, as has happened in recent decades.”
“Moreover, it is unlikely that international parties will be able to force Hezbollah to withdraw to northern Lebanon, either with a new agreement or after Hezbollah’s inevitable return to the region shortly after it ostensibly withdraws to the North.”
“Therefore, Israel will also not be able to settle for a new resolution in the UN Security Council, certainly not on the basis of the previous resolution 1701, which will not provide security for the country, as has been proven in recent decades. The security of the State of Israel cannot be based on foreign powers, certainly not on peacekeeping forces that have almost no authority and no ability to counter the threat of Hezbollah, and will ultimately strengthen the terrorist organization,” he said.
If so, is war in the North an inevitable event?
“The State of Israel has no choice other than to embark on a large-scale and comprehensive war to defeat Hezbollah in order to provide security to its citizens, change the strategic picture, and reduce the threats against the State. This is as opposed to a limited military operation aimed at deterrence, such as in the Second Lebanon War.”
“We cannot accept a strategic situation in which a terrorist organization leads to the mass evacuation of approximately 80,000 residents from their homes in the North. Hezbollah is currently the most serious threat to the State of Israel, bar Iran. If Israel does not manage to address this threat immediately, it will receive an ‘October 7’ in the North in a few years, after Hezbollah consolidates and re-establishes itself on the northern border.”
Dostri further added: “Therefore, Israel must take advantage of the current security situation, the international legitimacy of a future response given Hezbollah’s incessant attacks, the Israeli evasion of escalation so far in order to exhaust all diplomatic options, and the fact that Hezbollah cannot strategically and operationally surprise Israel at the border at this current time. The Israeli South is also in a state of war, and many reserve forces are mobilized. The army is prepared and ready regarding military skills and exercises.”
“Additionally, it should be noted that since October 7, Israel continues to receive supplies of American weapons, most of which are intended for use in Lebanon and not in Gaza.”
What might be the consequences of a war against Hezbollah on the Israeli home front?
“An all-out war with Hezbollah could lead to severe damage on the home front. Hezbollah has at its disposal over 150,000 missiles and rockets, thousands of long-range missiles, hundreds of precision missiles, a large arsenal of anti-tank missiles, fleets of UAVs and drones, good cyber capabilities, and more. The greatest threat to the home front – a possible invasion by Hezbollah special forces – was apparently prevented in October with the rapid and efficient deployment of IDF forces along the border.”
“This scenario involves the launching of thousands of missiles per day across all parts of the country, with a reasonable possibility of hitting critical infrastructure such as electricity and water supplies.”
“At the same time, if Israel initiates the attack, which will probably happen, and does not postpone it further, it is likely that it will carry out pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah’s weapons depots, which will reduce Hezbollah’s long-range and precision launch capability. In addition, in a war with Hezbollah, Israel will use tremendous firepower, much more than the firepower used in Gaza, resulting in damage to vital national infrastructures in Lebanon and the destruction of entire neighborhoods in Lebanese cities, which will also make it difficult for Hezbollah to operate against the Israeli home front.”
Is the Israeli home front ready for this?
“The Israeli government and the IDF, through the Home Front Command, should start preparing the Israeli home front for the reality of a war with Hezbollah. There was talk of possibly of starting a public advertising campaign on the matter, but this has not yet come to fruition. Israelis must be ready and prepared for such a scenario, which will happen with a high probability. The sooner we start, the better.”
“In any case, there is faith in the need for war with Hezbollah, and the Israeli public is aware of the gravity of the situation, especially after October 7. Not only has the Israeli spirit not weakened, but it has strengthened. It is evident that the nation has a willingness for Israel to make sacrifices to defend itself and the citizens of Israel.”
“This national resilience has resulted in aid drives to the fronts, widespread support to the soldiers, and a spirit of strength and love that means the people will allow the government to continue until the defeat of Hamas. In regards to the North, we hear and see heads of authorities and residents who are not ready for things to return to normal unless the situation with Hezbollah is resolved.
“This teaches us about the willingness of Israelis to defeat Hezbollah. And to create long-term peace and stability in the region, even if it involves temporary vulnerability on the home front,” he concluded.
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