Hezbollah launched numerous rounds of attacks on Israel on July 4. Most of the attacks began around ten in the morning and continued throughout the day. They also mostly involved the use of drones, which have become one of the main Hezbollah weapons in its arsenal since the October 7 war began and Hezbollah chose to begin attacks on Israel.
Hezbollah claimed, via Iranian media, that it had “launched a barrage of rockets at several Israeli military positions in response to the regime’s killing of one of its commanders in southern Lebanon.” It said that that it targeted “five Israeli military positions, including 100 Katyushas that targeted the headquarters of the Golan Division as well as Israel’s air and missile systems at Nafah Base,” Iran’s IRNA reported.
Hezbollah calls this a retaliation for Israel killing Muhammad Nimah Nasser, known as “Hajj Abu Naameh”, on Wednesday. He is the second high level Hezbollah commander killed in the last month. Another one was killed on June 12. Hezbollah responded in June by firing up to 215 rockets and projectiles at northern Israel.
Hezbollah members of parliament have said the retaliation against Israel will increase. “Hassan Fadlallah [a member of Lebanon’s parliament for Hezbollah] stressed that Hezbollah’s punitive response will come, and the enemy should realize that the resistance front has the upper hand,” IRNA reported. Hezbollah continues to warn Israel about launching a large military operation in Lebanon. Iran has also issued warning about the chances of an escalating war.
Clearly Iran and Hezbollah do not want a larger war, because Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah so it can use it against Israel. Hezbollah has accomplished many of its aims over nine months of attacks. It has depopulated areas in northern Israel, including Kiryat Shmona, an unprecedented “success”, in the eyes of Hezbollah.
A recent article at the Iranian state media IRNA, which reprints Hezbollah claims, noted that Israelis who left the north in October due to the attacks have become “refugees” in hotels in Israel. This is Iran and Hezbollah’s plan. Their plan does not want a major war because they are concerned about the damage Hezbollah will suffer.
Hezbollah’s true message
The message from Hezbollah is clear from its attacks. It used drones in many incidents on Wednesday between 10am and noon, targeting an increasingly large area between the Sea of Galilee and Metulla. This including numerous sirens in the Golan and also in the Huleh valley. These included the communities that overlook the Huleh such as Shamir and Gonen. It also included Katzrin in the Golan. At 11:23am the area of Hezbollah attacks expanded to target Nahariya, and communities along the coast as well as further inland.
Hezbollah’s message is clear. It has the large drone arsenal and also rocket and missile arsenal to chose where and when to attack. It has leaned into its drone arsenal over the last months, increasing its use of drones. This is because drones can be precise and effective and also they cause sirens in wide areas. Hezbollah can then achieve a multi-pronged list of what it sees as “successes.” It can target Israeli areas with precision, as well as cause civilian areas to be forced into shelters through sirens. Hezbollah often relies on Israeli media to bolster its sense of accomplishment. It will sometimes seek to launder news through foreign media and then re-report its won “success” via Al-Mayadeen in order to make its claims seem more legitimate.
The point here is that Hezbollah’s claims alone do not make them true, but it thinks it makes it seem more accurate if it can get others to re-report its claims. Therefore the increase in attacks in retaliation for the killing of the commander will also be waged online and on media. For instance Al-Mayadeen reported that Israel’s Haaretz had said there are “difficult days” ahead now after the killing of Nasser in Lebanon. It remains to be seen if this is something Hezbollah actually has in store at the moment or if the retaliation will subside after a day.
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