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Iran seeks to deter Israel from Lebanon operation

Iran’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said on Wednesday that any Israeli action that leads to “all-out war” in Lebanon would become an “eternal hell” for Israel, Iran’s latest attempt to protect Hezbollah, its most well funded and well equipped  proxy.

For Iran, preserving Hezbollah is a key priority, which is why it is ramping up its rhetoric. Israeli officials have been saying for months that the Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel, now more than 5,500 since they began in October, must stop. However, Israeli officials have discussed a diplomatic solution and only if that fails, proffered a military solution.

It is now June and the North is as hot as ever. On Thursday morning, Hezbollah continued to launch numerous drone attacks on Israel a day after the IDF killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Tyre.

Iran is watching closely.

On Wednesday, Bagheri Kani warned of a war in Lebanon. IRNA state media in Iran reported that “Iran’s interim foreign minister has warned that an all-out war on Lebanon will definitely turn into an eternal hell for the Zionist regime.”

 Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral of Taleb Abdallah, also known as Abu Taleb, a senior field commander of Hezbollah who was killed by what security forces say was an Israel strike yesterday night, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon June 12, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral of Taleb Abdallah, also known as Abu Taleb, a senior field commander of Hezbollah who was killed by what security forces say was an Israel strike yesterday night, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon June 12, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

Kani described the current war as an “equation.” This means that Hezbollah believes it has carved out a new front inside Israel where it has tied its attacks to the Gaza war.

“Bagheri Kani, speaking to reporters on Wednesday, said that the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah, which is an active actor in Lebanon militarily and diplomatically, plays a key role in the war equation that has created a deterrent power in the region,” the IRNA report said.

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When Iran speaks of “deterrent power” it means that it can ramp up attacks on Israel by Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies on seven different fronts against Israel, from Gaza to Yemen, Lebanon, the West Bank, Iraq, Syria, and also Iran itself when it launched 300 drones and missiles on April 13-14.

Iran’s foreign minister also discussed the chance of Saudi Arabia’s king visiting Iran. He “said that the trip is on the agenda of Iran and Saudi Arabia. He said the Tehran-Riyadh ties will be pursued once the next Iranian administration comes to power,” the report noted. This is important because Iran wants to work with countries like Saudi Arabia and also to isolate Israel through Iran’s increasing ties in the region, with Egypt, for instance.

The Iranian diplomat was also asked about the chances that former US President Donald Trump will become president. “The change of presidents cannot affect the Iranian strategic policies, even though Tehran scrutinizes potential changes in the international arena, including the United States, and that the next administration in Iran will definitely take serious measures in this respect,” the Iranian diplomat noted.

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