Overlooking Israel’s northern city of Kiryat Shmona is a park with an observation tower. The tower was constructed decades ago and near it there are old fortifications that appear to date from the 1960s. In those days Kiryat Shmona would have been very close to the Syrian occupied Golan Heights. Today those heights are controlled by Israel and the whole of the Hula valley can be seen from the observation point.
July 6 was a clear pretty day in northern Israel. In the Hula valley it is hot, too hot in the afternoon. However, from the observation point over Kiryat Shmona the wind is blowing. The wind comes up the valley from Lebanon, and it is a north wind that comes down toward the valley and then sinks and stops as the land dips below sea level toward the Sea of Galilee.
Kiryat Shmona has been evacuated since mid-October. It is a ghost town. It is entirely quiet on Shabbat, not a car can be heard. Only the chirping of the birds now make a racket here. On the observation point overlooking the city, the quiet is only part of the story. Earlier in the day sirens sounded throughout the morning warning of incoming attacks from Hezbollah.
The IDF said at 10:14 that “following the sirens that sounded in Kiryat Shmona a short while ago, a suspicious aerial target that crossed from Lebanon was successfully intercepted by the IDF Aerial Defense Array. No injuries were reported. Sirens regarding rocket and missile launches were activated in the area due to the danger of falling shrapnel from the interception.”
Hezbollah has sought to target Israel often with drones and missiles, and on July 4 the Iranian-backed group had launched more than 200 rockets and 20 drones targeting northern Israel. The group claimed this was in response to the killing of one of its senior commanders in Tyre earlier in the week. However, the largest story is that the group continues to feel it has impunity to attack Israel.
While it feels impunity to attack there are reports that a hostage deal or ceasefire could take place in Gaza. In general Hezbollah has linked its attacks on Israel with the Gaza war, as Hezbollah now claims it has a right to attack Israel every time there is escalation in Gaza. What this means is that Hamas now pulls the strings of Hezbollah. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran.
If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, or if the northern front with Hezbollah suddenly falls quiet and the Iranian-backed group stops attacking, then there will be questions about when Israelis may return to northern Israel. Currently between 50,000 and 80,000 people continue to be evacuated from northern Israeli communities, such as Kiryat Shmona. Around 20,000 are evacuated just from Kiryat Shmona. Driving around this city and seeing the damage from rockets that have struck the area reveals the challenges ahead.
How does Kiryat Shmona compare to Sderot?
If people return to areas such as Kiryat Shmona they will need the shelters and protections that cities such as Sderot have. Sderot was provided increased protection because of the rocket threat that Hamas began to roll out in the early 2000s. The city is now festooned with painted armored bus shelters and it is well equipped to handle rocket fire. However, northern Israel has been neglected over the years in this respect. Even though it was widely known that Hezbollah was a much larger threat than Hamas, it appears not a lot of thought went into how the civilians would be protected in the north. This became apparent after October 7 when the decision was made to evacuate the civilians.
Resources have been poured into providing some shelters in the north and improving defenses. However, nine months of war show how difficult this challenge is. At the end of the day it will be up to the local authorities and civilians to decide if they have enough shelters. The contrast with communities such as Sderot is clear. Sderot is an example of a modern city that is prepared for incoming rockets and other threats. It was evacuated after October 7, but its residents have returned.
The Hezbollah threat is large and looming. A recent post by the IDF on social media said that Hezbollah has 200,000 rockets and 100,000 terrorist operatives, alongside drones and other weapons. The group has shown throughout nine months of war that it can carry out wide ranging and increasingly deep attacks into Israel. Hezbollah often brags about its targets and the group speaks about the types of weapons it uses. It hints at the obvious fact that it is keeping most of its powder dry and only revealing a part of its capabilities.
Israel’s decision to evacuate the communities of northern Israel continues to lack clarity. It may have made sense directly after October 7, but today it makes less sense. It sends a message that they need to be evacuated because of the Hezbollah threat and the lack of willingness to deter that threat. Never in Israel’s history did Israel evacuate whole cities for nine months. This raises serious questions about what the long term plan is for the north and the Hezbollah threat. The need to secure and protect, with shelters and other means, the communities is clear.
During nine months of war there was time to invest in this and there have been improvements. However a drive around Kiryat Shmona, amidst the quiet of the ghost town and the chirping birds, reveals a sense that much more must be done to bring the necessary protections. This is because anyone who is driving around or walking, feels immediately that they lack a place to run to for shelter.
From personal experience as I drove and walked, I felt like asking myself every ten meters, where would I go if sirens sounded? I saw the empty playgrounds and imagined them full of children and asked, where will the children run to? The city has old municipal shelters from back in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the requirement to bring everything up to a Sderot-level of safety is clear.
Hezbollah has tied itself to Hamas, such that it will now escalate every time there are tensions in Gaza. This makes the northern front now more similar to the Gaza front. Both fronts may also join with increased tensions in the West Bank in the future. This is the goal of Iran, to “unite” the arenas or fronts against Israel. Iran has put its plan in place. The question is when Israel will be willing to put its investment in place in terms of the shelters needed for the civilian population.
The affect of this lack of shelter is not just on cities such as Kiryat Shmona. I drove to other areas up and down the Hula valley and the problem is widespread, also when it comes to reviving the tourism industry. At entrances to tourism sites, bus stops, parks and also the communities that have small cabins that they rent out for visitors, the Tzimerim in Hebrew; all of them require more shelters and clear signs for where people should go in case of alarms. Nine months of war has brough evacuation but not the plan for what comes next. As a shift in Gaza looms with any potential ceasefire, it is necessary to ask now when the plans for increase shelters will begin to be put in place.
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