The coup to replace President Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee appears to be sputtering as prominent Democrats are publicly lining up behind the presumptive nominee despite deep private concerns documented within the party.
From vulnerable Democrat senators trying to win reelection in red and purple states, to squad members from deep blue districts, to the chairs of the Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses, the party is publicly rallying behind an extremely vulnerable Biden to be at the top of the ticket this fall.
Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Jon Tester (D-MT), who face extremely competitive Senate races, refused Monday to abandon Biden—who, along with his family, is adamant he is remaining in the race.
“I’m not a pundit,” Brown said Monday, according to NBC News. “I’ve talked to people across Ohio. They have legitimate questions about whether the president should continue his campaign, and I’ll keep listening to people.”
Casey took a very similar approach to Brown. He refused to call on Biden to step aside for another Democrat, with Punch Bowl News’s Andrew Desiderio reporting he said that the party already has its “two nominees,” referring to Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I’ve got a race to run,” Casey reportedly added. “I’ll let the political scientists analyze. I’m not gonna be an analyst.”
In a statement to the Hill, Tester said, “Biden has got to prove to the American people — including me — that he’s up to the job for another four years.”
“Meanwhile, I’ll continue to do what I’ve always done: Stand up to President Biden when he’s wrong and protect our Montana way of life,” he added.
The men have some of the weakest reelection odds of any Democrat senator in the country, and their refusal to flip on the president just over a month before the party’s presidential convention comes amid worries on the left that he could negatively affect down-ballot Democrats.
Brown and Tester are both seeking reelection in red states – Ohio and Montana – where Trump won handily in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans in other statewide races have enjoyed substantial success in recent election cycles. Brown is squaring off with Ohio GOP businessman Bernie Moreno, while Tester is running against Montana Republican businessman and Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy. Casey is set for a showdown with Republican businessman Dave McCormick in purple Pennsylvania.
Safer House Democrats who come from deep blue districts are also backing the president amid discussions about replacing him.
Members of the progressive “Squad,” headlined by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), publicly backed Biden on Monday, declaring “Joe Biden is our nominee,” as CBS News’s Ellis Kim reported:
I have spoken to the President over the weekend. I have spoken with him extensively. He made clear then and he has made clear since that he is in this race. The matter is closed. He had reiterated that this morning, he has reiterated that to the public. Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race and I support him.
NEW: @AOC BUOYS BIDEN: “I have spoken to the President over the weekend. I have spoken with him extensively. He made clear then and he has made clear since that he is in this race. The matter is closed. He had reiterated that this morning, he has reiterated that to the public.…
— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) July 8, 2024
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) followed suit, declaring to Hill reporter Maeve Sheehy “everybody’s supporting the president” with the exception of a few “outliers.”
While not a member of the squad, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) changed his tune on Monday, New York Times Congressional Correspondent Annie Karni noted, citing colleague Maya C. Miller.
“Nadler says he still has concerns about president Biden’s candidacy, but that those are ‘beside the point’ now,” Karni wrote in a post on X. “’He’s going to be our nominee, and we all have to support him.’”
Oof.
Nadler says he still has concerns about president Biden’s candidacy, but that those are “beside the point” now. “He’s going to be our nominee, and we all have to support him.”
Two days ago, Nadler called on Biden to end his candidacy in a private call.
via @mayacmiller
— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) July 9, 2024
“Two days ago, Nadler called on Biden to end his candidacy in a private call,” she added.
Nadler was not alone in reportedly expressing private concerns about Biden as the presumptive nominee. One House Democrat speaking anonymously told Axios Congressional reporter Andrew Solender that “the dam is holding,” adding “very few members will openly speak in favor of Biden stepping aside.”
Vibe check for tomorrow: A House Democrat deeply skeptical of Biden tells me “the dam is holding” and predicts “very few members will openly speak in favor of Biden stepping aside.”
“As someone who wanted the reckoning and is disappointed that it’s over, trust me: it’s over.”
— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) July 9, 2024
“As someone who wanted the reckoning and is disappointed that it’s over, trust me: it’s over,” the representative added.
The leaders of the Black and Hispanic Congressional Caucuses also reaffirmed their support for Biden on Monday.
Biden gets more key support pic.twitter.com/OUhEeSrnPd
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 9, 2024
Major fluctuations in Polymarket’s betting market about who will be the Democrat nominee have taken place in recent days, but Biden reclaimed his place as the far-and-away favorite in betting odds to secure the nomination as of midday Tuesday.
Polymarket gives Biden a roughly seven in ten chance to win the nomination as of this writing, with Harris having a two in ten chance for it. This is a substantial shift from July 3, when Harris was favored to be the nominee with a 49 percent to Biden’s 38 percent chance.
Biden has made clear he plans to stay in the race, while First Lady Jill Biden said Monday at an event in Columbus, Georgia, she is “all-in” like her husband.
“Joe has made it clear he’s all in,” Jill Biden said, after chants of “four more years” died down. “I’m all-in, too. And I know you are, too, or you wouldn’t be here today.” #gapolhttps://t.co/OiYAbx5BVo
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) July 9, 2024
“Joe has made it clear he’s all in,” Jill Biden said, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. “I’m all in, too. And I know you are, too, or you wouldn’t be here today.”
As Breitbart News also reported:
Democrat internal polling reportedly reveals that House Republicans could flip as many as 20 seats, further increasing their majority.
“One Democratic insider tells me that members have been briefed on polling that shows House Democrats could lose as many as 20 seats,” Marc Caputo, a national political reporter for the Bulwark, wrote.
[…]
One swing district Democrat described the meeting as “intense.” Another said Biden has “got to step down.” The same Democrat said, “There were actual tears from people, and not for Biden.”
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