America’s Adversaries React to the Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump

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Iran

Reactions to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump were mixed in Iran’s media and political arena. Perhaps the most sensationalist reaction among Iran’s major news sites was by Tasnim, a site closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which called the incident “Blood and Pig” in a bold headline, which was also accompanied by a photo of Trump with blood on his face. Underpinning Tasnim’s reaction, as well as that of much of Iranian media, were two lingering associations from Trump’s time in office: his administration’s “maximum” pressure campaign on Iran, and its assassination of Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani. The bitterness of the latter has especially colored coverage of the affair, with most articles remarking, sometimes ironically, that the man who ordered Soleimani’s death almost suffered a similar fate. Yet, Iran’s media has been mostly measured, hesitant to editorialize too strongly. Many stories have reflected on what the incident might mean for America’s election, its politics, or its future. A story in the hard-liner site Mehr compared the attempt on Trump’s life with similar failed killings of other political leaders through history, and emphasized how those incidents emboldened their political careers. Adolph Hitler’s ability to turn the failure of Operation Valkyrie into something that strengthened both his power and the trajectory of Nazism was offered as a preview of what might be to come of Trump and his brand of populism in the United States. There was also some predictable indulgence of conspiracy theory, with some articles questioning why America’s vaunted Secret Service had apparently failed to stop the shooter despite some advanced warning from witnesses in the crowd. The logic here is that because the failed attempt has stirred sympathy for Trump and energized his followers, then it must have been staged.

President Trump Signs an EO Sanctioning Iran. Image by the Kremlin via Wikimedia Commons.

Russia

In the immediate aftermath of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, Russian analysts argued that the event is likely to become the key event of the electoral campaign, eclipsing Joe Biden’s debate performance and the pending court cases against Trump. One expert suggested that as a result of the shooting, many Americans will come to see Trump as a martyr and potential victim of the U.S. political system, increasing the likelihood of his victory in November. Some analysts went further, directly blaming the attack on the Biden administration’s rhetoric that “Trump was the number one threat to U.S. security and might destroy American democracy should he come to power,” which could not but radicalize some of Trump’s opponents. The most conspiratorially minded analysts suggested that it was possible that U.S. security services were involved in the shooting.

At the same time, official reaction from the Russian government was relatively limited and restrained. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that while Vladimir Putin condemned the attack, he had not spoken directly to Trump and had no plans to do so. He also highlighted the highly polarized political atmosphere in the United States for creating a climate that led to the shooting, while rejecting any possibility that the attack was organized by the Biden administration.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump from 2019. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

China

After the shocking assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a political rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, on July 13, the Chinese government reported that President Xi Jinping conveyed his sympathy directly to Trump. Official Chinese media has not devoted too much coverage to the incident in their reporting. The key message from the few official commentaries have emphasized the polarization, radicalization, and violence in U.S. domestic politics, which, in Beijing’s view, demonstrate the superiority of China’s political system

On Chinese social media, the discussions are much more diverse. Conspiracy theories have been quite popular, with the Chinese netizens debating whether the assassination attempt was staged by the Republican or the Democratic Party. More people are focused on the sympathy that Trump has gained from the incident, drawing the conclusion that now the result of the election is more or less decided. Interestingly, a growing number of professional policy analysts are also favoring this view. As Trump’s reelection would be the single most important geopolitical event for China externally, Beijing’s concerns and preparation for the further deterioration of bilateral relations have only accelerated.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in 2018. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

North Korea

North Korean state media has remained conspicuously quiet about the assassination attempt on U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, carrying no government statements and posting zero articles in state media on the topic. Considering how carefully curated and controlled Pyongyang’s public messaging is, this absence of coverage is significant. As context, it’s worth noting that North Korea had also been rather quiet about the upcoming U.S. election even before the assassination attempt. North Korea also kept mum after Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden (and refused to concede). Many analysts believe that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un prefers dealing with Trump than with Biden. The two leaders engaged in an unprecedented series of summits and corresponded favorably. Although they were unable to come to terms on a deal to improve relations, Pyongyang likely still believes it can get better terms from a future Trump administration. Indeed, the Trump camp has hinted that it might be open to arms control. Kim could seek a deal with Trump wherein the United States would reduce troops in Korea, suspend military drills, or otherwise downgrade the alliance relationship in exchange for Pyongyang halting development or testing of its weapons. The Kim regime has spurned the Biden White House’s many attempts at dialogue and could manufacture a crisis on the eve of the November presidential election to help promote Trump’s odds of winning. Historically, North Korea tends to engage in provocations around U.S. (and South Korean) elections. In May of this year, U.S. intelligence stated that North Korea may carry out “its most provocative military actions in a decade,” likely with the support of Russia. Although it remains unknown if Kim has sent any personal message to Trump since the attempted shooting, there is a precedent for Kim Jong Un wishing Donald Trump well. Kim sent a message of sympathy to Trump after he contracted coronavirus in October 2020. South Korean analysts are concerned that a second Trump administration could reduce U.S. troops, suspend exercises, or even water down the American commitment to defend Korea. Seeking to allay these concerns, the Trump campaign reassured Korea that “the Korea-U.S. alliance would not be weakened but rather even strengthened.” North Korea’s restraint thus far should be an indicator that its leadership is carefully weighing its options and could still carry out a provocation in the runup to the election. Even if said crisis would prove unnecessary to help Trump beat Biden at the polls, it would give his administration an easy win and give North Korea free leverage to trade away at the beginning of an engagement cycle.

Kim and Trump shaking hands at the red carpet during the DPRK–USA Singapore Summit. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

Jihadists

In the aftermath of the assassination attempt against former U.S. President Donald Trump, one would think the issue might be of interest to the global jihadi movement. However, in the intervening days, there has not been anything officially released by either al-Qaeda and its branches or the Islamic State. Usually these groups are quite chatty about various issues, so it is interesting that there has not been any comment yet since the United States remains one of its top adversaries. While neither group has commented on the assassination attempt thus far, supporters of the both groups noted what occurred on social media platforms like Telegram. They essentially were reposting the various videos and pictures that came out in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and noting the schadenfreude they had about the United States. It is plausible that the Islamic State could devote an editorial to the assassination attempt in its weekly newsletter al-Naba — it arrives every Thursday night, so we will have to wait and see. However, it is more likely they will devote the editorial this week to its most recent attack in Oman and to highlight its continuing war against Shia. It is likely that this event hasn’t registered for the groups as important enough to comment on because both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State view all Americans as crusaders and infidels. Thus, the internal politics of the United States, the current political campaign, and divisions within society do not really matter for groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, since everyone is viewed in a negative light and as legitimate targets of their terror campaigns. Thus, the assassination attempt against Trump for jihadis is just another news event alongside all of the other news events that happened that day and doesn’t change their calculus or views of the United States.

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