The D Brief: Europe’s defense ‘awakening’; Houthis hit Israel; Ukraine’s shell shortage; Farnborough preview; And a bit more.
Europe is finally getting serious about funding its own defense, and for this reason U.S. allies there should receive more, not less, investment and engagement, the top U.S. commander in the region said Thursday at a public event in Colorado.
“This is exactly the partner we’ve been looking for for three decades [and] it’s exactly the time when a U.S. contribution will produce the most value,” Gen. Chris Cavoli told the Aspen Security Forum, to some applause. “This is exactly the moment when American interests will be advanced most by American continued participation” in NATO, said Cavoli, who leads U.S. European Command and is NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
“This is a different Europe from what we complained about for years,” he said.
Context: Cavoli spoke amid growing skepticism about the alliance and its members among the American right wing, Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reports. For example, in February, presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member who doesn’t spend at least 2 percent of GDP on national defense.
“Many nations are concluding that 2% is not enough, that they’re going to have to go higher than that,” Cavoli said. “Poland is spending upwards of 4% right now. The UK is coming up to 2.5% as their announced goal. I think we’ll see that across the board.” Read the rest, here.
Welcome to this Friday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1977, the world’s first GPS signal was transmitted shortly after midnight from Navigation Technology Satellite 2 and received at Rockwell Collins in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
For the second time in a row, the Farnborough Air Show will open as war rages on European soil, Defense One’s Audrey Decker reported Thursday. She’ll be spending much of next week walking the exhibits and discussing trends and developments in transatlantic aviation.
Tens of thousands are expected to gather just west of London for the biennial air show, which is typically dominated by commercial sales yet also draws plenty of defense company CEOs and sales reps to pitch their wares to prime contractors and government officials, Decker writes in a preview.
Here are a few of her notes: “While future military aid to Ukraine hangs in the balance, conversations about how allies can collectively produce more weapons will likely take place on the sidebars of the show, as U.S. tries to figure out how it can get the capacity it needs to build weapons to replenish its own stocks, keep sending weapons to Ukraine and Israel, and prepare Taiwan in the event of an invasion from China.”
The U.S. is sending a large delegation of government officials to meet with foreign counterparts at Farnborough—including Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, and a sizable group of lawmakers led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.
“Execs might also shed some light on how major aerospace companies are dealing with industrial base challenges and supply chain problems,” Decker writes. “While the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be in the past, pressure to replace Chinese components may bring more complications for companies.” Continue reading, here.
ICYMI: The Farnborough show “could see the unveiling of competing concepts for NATO’s Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability project,” according to Jon Hemler writing Wednesday for Forecast International.
What’s going on: Up to three manufacturers are expected to offer their take on the NGRC, which aims to field an advanced medium-lift rotorcraft between 2035 and 2040 for NATO fleets. The project includes France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK.
The idea: The NGRC aircraft is intended to replace nearly 1,000 European rotorcraft, predominantly NH90 and AW101 helicopters. Developers are looking for something that’s rapidly reconfigurable in order to handle a variety of missions, including anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare, electronic warfare, search and rescue, personnel recovery, and medical evacuation, Hemler writes. “Desired attributes include a hybrid power plant, integration with uncrewed systems, internal C-17 air transport capability, aerial refueling capability, and provisions for crew-served weapons and air-launched effects armaments.”
While NATO hasn’t yet officially disclosed the prime aircraft bidders, three major players are anticipated: Airbus, Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky, and a collaborative effort between Bell and Leonardo. Read on, here.
The Iran-backed Houthis attacked Israel with a rare drone strike in central Tel Aviv that killed one person and wounded at least 10 others early Friday. The drone hit an apartment building near the U.S. Embassy after slipping through Israel’s air defense network, which has been especially active since Hamas launched its surprise attack in early October.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, and said they used a new “Yafa” drone that’s “undetectable by radars.”
Israeli military officials said the Houthis used a “likely upgraded” Iranian-made Samad-3 drone. “This was not a stealth UAV; it was an Iranian UAV,” said military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. “We’re examining the circumstances of why it wasn’t intercepted,” he promised.
Expert reax: “The Sammad is the Houthi’s standard long-range strike drone and has already been used in several attacks against Israel,” weapons analyst Fabian Hinz wrote Friday. “The one thing I find notable is the use of a Mado 275 engine,” which is Iran’s unlicensed copy of the German Limbach L 275. “Most Sammads I have seen seemed to use the less powerful DLE 170” motor, he said.
Why it matters: “For the Houthis, increasing the UAV range would be quite attractive as it would allow them to strike targets further away, fly routes evading enemy defenses and attack from unexpected angles,” said Hinz.
And lastly: Almost three weeks ago, we learned “Russian President Vladimir Putin has considered providing Houthi rebel fighters with anti-ship cruise missiles,” according to the Middle East Eye, reporting July 1. More recently, “The White House has launched a confidential push to try to stop Moscow from delivering the missiles,” the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Defense officials have also “been asked to prepare a broader list of potential targets [in Yemen], including specific militants, for possible strikes,” according to the Journal.
CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla has also requested an escalation of counter-Houthi operations in the region, reportedly asking Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for a “whole of government” approach to stop the Houthis’ ongoing campaign of attacks against commercial shipping off Yemen’s coasts. More, here.
Lastly today: Why is Ukraine short of artillery shells? “A decade of strategic, funding and production mistakes” by U.S. and NATO leaders, reports Reuters in the deepest dive we’ve yet seen on the topic. The news organization says it interviewed dozens of current and former U.S., Ukrainian and North Atlantic Treaty Organization military officials, and reviewed thousands of pages of confidential U.S. Army briefings, public documents and other internal records.
Ironic consideration: “The U.S. pre-war plan for sourcing the explosive TNT from overseas included contracts with a factory in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters reports. However, that “plant was seized by Russia early in the war.” Continue reading, here.
Have a safe weekend, and we’ll see you on Monday.
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