One thing we know for sure: Benjamin Netanyahu will stand at a podium in the US House of Representatives at 2 p.m. on Wednesday and make the case for continued support for Israel.
Okay, even that’s not quite certain in these uncertain times: If President Joe Biden steps down before then, if Israel’s seven-front war escalates, or even if it abates — Netanyahu’s visit stateside to deliver a history-making fourth address to Congress could be canceled or postponed.
Here’s a look at what we do know, as of this moment:
What Netanyahu will say
Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, ostensibly asked Netanyahu to speak so he could thank Americans for backing Israel in its war with Hamas.
Johnson had to cajole Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Jewish New York Democrat who has said Netanyahu is failing as a leader, into co-signing the invitation.
Netanyahu’s mission isn’t just to thank America, but to push back against deep unhappiness among Democrats and in the Biden White House with how he has conducted the war, which at first elicited broad bipartisan support.
Biden will not deliver to Israel large bombs as long as its army is fighting in crowded areas in Gaza, and a growing minority of Democrats are calling into question defense assistance for Israel.
Johnson made clear in a talk this week with Jewish Republicans at the party convention in Milwaukee that one reason he asked Netanyahu to speak was to tweak Democrats as Republicans vie for Jewish votes and support.
“I said if Chuck Schumer doesn’t want to attend, that’s up to him,” Johnson said to laughter.
Who’s coming to the speech?
The last time Netanyahu spoke to Congress in 2015, it was also to push back against policy favored by a Democratic president and his party. Then-Speaker John Boehner timed the announcement of his invitation (without consulting with Democrats) for the day after then-President Barack Obama outlined his Iran policy in the State of the Union.
A month or so later, when Netanyahu spoke, almost 60 Democrats boycotted, not necessarily because they felt Obama’s policies were beyond criticism, but because they saw Netanyahu’s collusion with Boehner to upbraid Obama in the US parliamentary body as disrespectful.
This time around, prominent Democrats are already saying they will boycott, but this time it’s all about policy: They object to Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, which they say is at least partly to blame for the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians and leaving the Gaza Strip verging on famine. Chief among them are progressive leaders Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington.
Some progressive Democrats — think the “Squad” — are rumored to be planning protests from the floor. Johnson told the RJC he is adding additional sergeants at arms to arrest anyone who protests. Expect Democrats to push back against any arrests, and to note that Johnson has said that law enforcement has been overly harsh with the insurrectionists who overran Congress on Jan. 6, 2021 to overturn an election.
Who else will Netanyahu meet?
Netanyahu is planning to meet with Biden on Monday, according to unofficial reports. He will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris, who will be unable to attend the Wednesday speech because she will be campaigning. Also reportedly on his agenda: a memorial service for the late Sen. Joe Lieberman, who died in March.
Top of his agenda with Biden, naturally, is the course of the war. US officials say the sides are closer than they have ever been to a temporary ceasefire that will see the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinians held prisoner by Israel.
Netanyahu is under pressure from families of the hostages to close the deal, from his military to leave Gaza so it can focus on the north where tensions on the Lebanese border with Hezbollah are intensifying — but also under pressure from right wingers in his government not to leave Gaza until Hamas is well and truly destroyed.
Insiders say that the Israelis will make it clear that the Americans should consider the war holistically — fought, they say, on seven fronts, all funded and backed by Iran: In Gaza, on the border with Lebanon, with Iranian-backed proxes in Syria and Iraq and Yemen — where Houthi militants just launched a missile at Tel Aviv that killed one person and wounded another 10 — and in the West Bank and inside Israel, where Iranian actors are seeking to stir unrest.
An eighth front, the Israeli insiders say, is, basically, the world, where Iran is funding unsettling actions targeting not only Israel, but Jews. They cite American intelligence that says Iran has been paying for some of the pro-Palestinian protests in the United States.
Netanyahu would also arrive in Washington in the wake of a Knesset vote that rejects outright the establishment of a Palestinian state, even as part of a negotiated settlement with Israel — a position likely to irk an administration that has made the two-state suction a centerpiece of its Mideast policy.
What could keep Netanyahu from coming?
Netanyahu may stay home if the war goes one of two ways: If there’s a hostage/ceasefire deal he needs to manage, or if the war escalates, which is not out of the question after the deadly attack in Tel Aviv before dawn on Friday.
Another factor is whether Biden will be present. He shows no sign of giving in to the increasing number of Democrats, including Schumer and Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, two close Jewish allies, who say he should drop out of the race: On Friday he said he planned to resume campaigning next week. There’s a (small) chance however that his meeting with Netanyabhu could be postponed until Tuesday; on Thursday, Biden tested positive for COVID.
Who’s protesting?
Netanyahu will score a rare if unwanted twofer: pro- and-anti-Israel protesters.
Antiwar activists, many of them anti-Zionist, have said they are busing in protesters from around the country. Israeli activists who believe Netanyahu has mishandled the war and their allies — who cast themselves very much as pro-Israel — are also planning protests.
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