US President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris will have ramifications in the Middle East, a region already in crisis. While many countries in the region have been watching the last several weeks of political chaos in America and have likely prepared for this scenario, there will be bad actors seeking to take advantage of the US domestic political chaos.
On the other hand, if Biden shifts focus solely to his politics amid the presidential race, he may try to nail down his legacy in the Middle East by pushing robust policies.
“Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats – it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden wrote late Sunday night.
This will set up a chaotic process within the Democratic Party. Change can be good, bringing new leadership to the spotlight, but an orderly transition of power is what makes democracies stable. Countries in this region are already wary of the United States because of the political chaos it has endured over the last decade. Many find the US less reliable than in the past, and key American partners and allies have been drifting into the arms of Russia, China, and others.
This drift began years ago. Countries such as Turkey, a NATO member, have leaders who are openly anti-West and authoritarian. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for instance, tried to block Sweden from joining NATO and has been working closely with Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, many Gulf states are also hedging and have been open to working more closely with China, as well as the countries in the BRICS and the SCO, two economic blocks closer to China and Russia than to the West.
Qatar, a major non-NATO ally of the US, continues to openly host Hamas and work directly with Iran. It has sought to benefit from the October 7 war triggered by Hamas by serving as a mediator, but it has its own interests; it is unclear if these coincide with those of the US and the West.
The US already had problems in the region
This means the US has already had many challenges in the region, with countries taking Biden’s “America is back” messaging to heart. Biden promised to return the US to its traditional role in the world, meaning more of what America was like in the 1980s and 1990s.
But time doesn’t move backward, and the US has had trouble convincing countries to view its role that way. It has been using small airstrikes to try and deter the Houthis; this has not worked. US ally Qatar continues to host the terrorist group’s leaders, while Hamas continues to hold US citizens hostage. There is also no Saudi-Israel normalization deal yet. While US Central Command head Michael Kurilla recently visited eastern Syria, the Biden administration has had trouble crafting policy for the Syrian Democratic Forces, which continues to fight ISIS, or for other friends of America in the region, such as the Kurdistan regional government in northern Iraq.
The Hamas attack on Israel was a clear message that the terror group and its backers in Tehran feel empowered. Hamas assumed that the US and other Western countries would not do much in the aftermath of October 7; Iran assumed the same, as it empowered the Houthis to attack international shipping and pushed Hezbollah to attack the North. Iran also got militias in Iraq to attack Israel and US forces, killing three US service members in Jordan at one point.
This was unprecedented, and it required an unprecedented response; the US’s reaction has been barely proportionate. Some would also argue that the Biden administration held Israel back from operations in Rafah or from retaliation against Iran for its massive aerial attack in April.
Now that Biden is not going to run, the enemies of America may wonder if they can take advantage of the chaos. But they also know that the clock is ticking. Iran knows that if Republican candidate Donald Trump is elected – he already said he wants the hostages back – he will support strong Israeli action. However, Iran and others may also sense that US policy will become more insular in the coming years.
On the other hand, these countries may wonder whether Biden will focus solely on his policies if he doesn’t have to focus on the presidential race. That could free him up to try to nail down his legacy. He will want to do that in the Middle East, where unprecedented chaos and war have erupted under his watch. Countries that assume the US will lose focus on the region might discover that Biden will double down on his focus.
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