US intelligence assessed that there would be two waves of attacks by Hezbollah and Iran, senior American officials reported during a security consultation held by US President Joe Biden. However, who will strike first and what the attacks will entail remains unclear.
A senior American official noted that Iran and Hezbollah’s response is still “in the planning process.”
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed Monday by their national security team that it is still unclear when Iran and Hezbollah are expected to launch an attack against Israel and what precisely the attack might include, according to three senior American officials.
Biden administration officials say they are preparing to fend off the planned attacks and are exerting diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to minimize their retaliatory actions for the assassinations carried out by Israel in Beirut and Tehran last week.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G7 counterparts on Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel within the next 24-48 hours. However, according to senior American officials, during the security consultation held by Biden and Harris with the National Security Council in the White House Situation Room on Monday, the assessment was more ambiguous.
The senior officials noted that Biden and Harris were informed that US intelligence assesses the most likely scenario involves two waves of attacks – one by Hezbollah and one by Iran and several terrorist organizations it supports.
However, US intelligence remains unclear about who will attack first and what type of attack each intends to carry out, said the senior officials.
A senior official mentioned that intelligence indicates the response from Iran and Hezbollah is still “in the planning process” and that both Tehran and Beirut are debating exactly what to do.
Situation report
According to the White House, during the Situation Room meeting, Biden and Harris were informed about several American soldiers who were severely injured in a rocket attack carried out by pro-Iranian militias on the Ain al-Assad Air Base in Iraq. “They discussed the steps we are taking to protect our forces and respond to any attack on our people in the manner and place of our choosing,” stated the White House.
A senior official said the Pentagon expects additional attacks by pro-Iranian militias against US forces in the region in the coming days and emphasized that the increasing tension in the area makes militias feel less restrained by Iran than they were in recent months – leading them to attack US forces.
Behind the scenes
The White House stated that Biden and Harris were also updated on ongoing diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions and bring about a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza.
Blinken spoke on Monday with Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani and asked him to pressure Iran and Hezbollah to avoid escalation.
He also emphasized that the hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza, in which Qatar is a crucial mediator, remains a top priority for Biden, according to a source familiar with the conversation’s contents.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a briefing to reporters on Monday that the Biden administration has conveyed a message to Iran that the US will defend Israel if it is attacked. “We do not think such an attack is inevitable, but we are trying to prevent it,” Miller stated.
Points to note
During the Situation Room meeting, Biden instructed his team to work as closely as possible with Israel on coordinating the defensive effort in anticipation of a potential attack by Iran and Hezbollah, according to senior officials. US Central Command Commander General Michael Kurilla visited Israel on Monday and met with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to finalize the details of the joint preparations.
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