Against the backdrop of the blow Iran suffered with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran and the damage to its dignity, the assessments in Israel are that Iran is planning and coordinating its response with its partners.
These include Hezbollah, whose commander Fuad Shukr was eliminated in the heart of Beirut; the Houthis in Yemen, whose Hodeidah port was attacked and left only with a single crane for unloading goods from ships out of four and suffered tremendous damage to fuel depots; the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Hamas headquarters abroad; which was hit hard with the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri in the heart of Beirut.
However, despite the incessant threats against Israel, it can be estimated that the Iranians will carefully consider the scope and strength of the military response since disproportionate attacks, especially after it has been hinted that Haniyeh was eliminated with an explosive device, may lead to IDF attacks deep inside the territory of Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen.
According to security sources, the last thing the Iranians are interested in is seeing how the IDF erodes its proxies in the Middle East. These proxies have been cultivated over the years for several main tasks, including deterring the IDF from attacking the Iranian nuclear project and wearing out the power of fighting. A disproportionate hit may lead to a disproportionate response by the IDF against various targets.
Preparing for extreme scenarios
The security establishment is preparing for a number of extreme scenarios, including attacks on IDF bases on an unprecedented scale by unmanned aircraft, missiles, and rocket attacks on targets ranging from national infrastructure to the northern border to Haifa and even Tel Aviv.
For each of the scenarios, the IDF has a response in defense and attack.
The IDF has active defense systems that are among the best in the world – Iron Dome, Magic Wand, and the Arrow 2 and 3 systems. Most of the country’s citizens have spaces protected from missiles and rockets. In an attack, the IDF has an overwhelming, accurate, and extensive fire capability. The Israel Air Force is trained and is on high alert, combined with the capabilities of the Navy.
Commander of the United States Central Command CENTCOM, General Michael Kurilla, will arrive in Israel on Monday for final coordination and to examine the options for the response to an attack on the Israeli home front, similar to Iran’s attack in April in which coalition forces led by the US and the IDF worked together to repel the attack even before it reached Israeli airspace.
The US-led coalition’s addition to the Israeli front adds a very significant defensive force. Also, the home front command emphasizes that there is no change in the instructions.
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