Almost half of Hamas’s military battalions in northern and central Gaza have rebuilt their fighting capabilities, according to an investigative study by CNN, American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Monday.
Despite nearly ten months of fighting, forensic analyses of Hamas’ al-Qassam brigades, drawing on Israeli and Hamas military statements, footage, and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, cast doubt on the validity of Netanyahu’s “victory is in sight” speech at Congress.
While Israel has dealt blows to Hamas, killing multiple terrorists and eliminating top commanders, several units have regained fighting capacity in areas previously cleared by the IDF, CNN said.
Hamas’ military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, is composed of 24 battalions disseminated across the Gaza Strip. At the beginning of last month, the IDF had only successfully destroyed three of the 24 battalions, according to the assessments by CTP and ISW.
For a unit to be destroyed, it has to be unable to complete its objectives, CNN continued.
Of the 24, eight remain combat-effective and can fight against IDF troops. CTP and ISW rated units as combat-effective when they were able to defend the ground using sophisticated methods and weapons.
The other 13 battalions have had moderate reduction in their combat capabilities and can conduct smaller but less successful guerilla-style attacks.
“The Israelis would say that they cleared a place, but they haven’t fully cleared these areas. They haven’t defeated these fighters at all,” said Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for CTP, who led the joint research. “[Hamas] are ready to fight and want to fight.”
Regions of Gaza
The central Gazan Hamas battalions are the least damaged by the IDF, CNN continued, citing Israeli military sources. The sources claim that it is these battalions that Israel believes are holding the majority of the remaining hostages.
CTP, ISW, and CNN found that the 16 battalions in central and north Gaza reconstituted the best. Seven of these 16 battalions have successfully rebuilt at least once in the last six months.
The stratus of the eight battalions in southern Gaza is incomplete due to a lack of robust data.
CNN said they geolocated videos showing battles in Gaza and analyzed the findings.
What caused this resurgence?
US military experts told CNN that the “heavy-handed bombing campaign, and the absence of a post-war plan has helped trigger Hamas’ resurgence.”
One key area of resurgence is the Jabalya refugee camp, which the IDF bombed for three months in late 2023. Despite this, on returning in May, the IDF was met with strong resistance from 3 battalions.
“If the Hamas battalions were largely destroyed, Israeli forces wouldn’t still be fighting,” said retired US Army Col. Peter Mansoor.
“The fact that they’re still in Gaza, still trying to rout out elements of the Hamas battalions, shows me that Prime Minister Netanyahu is wrong,” he added. “The ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting forces is undiminished.”
Israel says that it has killed around 7,000 of Hamas’ 14,000 commanders, however Hamas disputes this.
“Everywhere Hamas rears its head, we will enter,” said one Israeli army officer to CNN. “Can this ping pong stay forever? No. Our society is not built for this. And neither is the international community.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed concern that Israel will leave a power vacuum in Gaza, which could lead to chaos in the short term and a Hamas resurgence in the longer term. The US has, therefore, been a strong proponent of Israel having a solid plan for the ‘day after.’
“Don’t make the same mistake America made after [al Qaeda leader, Osama] bin Laden,” Biden told Netanyahu in July. “There’s no need to occupy anywhere. Go after the people who did the job.”
Rebuilding in the ashes of Northern Gaza
Palestinians told CNN that Hamas dressed in plain clothes, in burnt buildings, and with hidden weapons so as to blend with the local civilian population.
“Hamas’ presence in northern Gaza is stronger than you can imagine,” said one Palestinian. “They’re among civilians. It helps them rebuild their forces.”
On January 7, the IDF claimed to have incapacitated Hamas’ command structure in northern Gaza, however there were soon reports of attacks carried out from the same location.
Hamas has boasted of recruiting “thousands” of new fighters since the war began.
“They [Israel] have certainly killed a lot of Hamas fighters, but they’re still out there, and they’re going to be recruiting like crazy based on the kinds of things that Israel has done,” said Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC told CNN.
Hamas has been recruiting new commanders to replace those who have been killed. “Recruitment started three or four months ago, and they got a few thousand. I don’t know exactly how many,” said one retired high-ranking Israeli officer.
As a result, the al-Qassam brigades are drawing the IDF into continuous combat.
“It’s a game of whack-a-mole,” said Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. “Israel tells the population to go to the center, to the south, and then a large number ultimately do … They keep moving these people around … and guess who moves with the population? Almost all Hamas fighters.”
Some Hamas brigades have merged so as to create stronger and more elite battalions and are creating improvised weaponry from explosive material left by the IDF. But without experienced commanders, CNN says, they largely rely on guerilla tactics, such as booby traps and staging ambushes.
“The growing lawlessness, the growing anarchy that feels very deliberately orchestrated, is going to allow Hamas or its reincarnation to reemerge,” said one expert to CNN. “Once these bombs stop falling, people are going to be desperate for the rule of law.”
The Iraqi 2007 “surge” strategy is not possible in Gaza. Its principles involve clearing the territory of insurgents, holding on to it, and building relations with local communities.
“The only way this conflict will end is with a Palestinian state,” said retired Col. Mansoor. “But the Palestinians, for their part, need to realize that Israel’s not going anywhere … right now, you have an Israeli government that refuses to countenance any sort of state for the Palestinians.”
“This conflict will only end with a political solution. It won’t end with a military victory.”
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