Debby was the first hurricane to strike the continental U.S. in 2024. After passing through the Caribbean, T.S. Debby tracked offshore along the Gulf Coast of Florida before becoming a Category One hurricane and making landfall in the relatively unpopulated Big Bend area of the state. It then passed overland across south Georgia and eastern South Carolina before moving into the Atlantic.
I live near the Gulf Coast of Florida, so it is not unusual for tropical storms to pass within a few miles of my home. As it approached, Debby was touted as a large storm that could turn into a powerful hurricane over the warm waters of the Gulf. But as with much of life, the hype and the reality are two different things.
Even near the cone, where I live, there were sustained winds of about 25–30 mph and gusts of up to 55mph. Through most of Sunday night, I heard the rain striking my back window and the sound of the wind gusting, but there was no damage to my house or any of my plants. Just the opposite: Everything got a good watering.
If Debby had been more destructive, I’m sure it would have been widely reported as evidence of global warming. As it was, except for one tragic death, it was mostly forgettable.
We are nearly halfway through the 2024 hurricane season, and we have experienced one weak Category One storm. According to NOAA predictions at the start of the season, 2024 was going to be a “above normal” hurricane season, with a predicted 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 134 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes — with the implication that warmer waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean (caused by global warming) would drive more hurricane activity. But other factors have intervened, including a massive amount of Saharan dust over the Atlantic, blocking the sunlight, drying the atmosphere, and dampening tropical activity.
There’s still plenty of time for more hurricanes to form and strike the U.S., and one or more of these may be major hurricanes causing enormous damage and some fatalities. But at present, there is no indication of such a storm forming in the Atlantic.
Year after year, government agencies issue predictions of “above average tropical storm activity,” and most years, the actual activity is just average. From where I sit near the Gulf Coast, I haven’t seen hurricane activity increasing due to climate change. What I do see is more hype, year after year — and fewer deaths.
It’s easy enough to track the death toll over time, and the fact is that hurricane-related deaths are going down. That’s not because storms are less frequent or less severe; it’s because of better tracking and warnings.
Checking a list of “30 deadliest mainland U.S. hurricanes,” I find that only two (Katrina in 2005 and Floyd in 1999) occurred within the last 50 years.
With a Cat One storm like Debby, there is no reason for anyone to die. All that’s needed is to remain inside or relocate to a shelter and wait out the storm. Even with a more powerful hurricane, most homes in Florida are now equipped with tie-down roofs and storm-resistant windows, mandatory since 2004. Those who stay inside, avoid windows, and just wait should be okay.
Of course, there are some homes that must be evacuated. Under Gov. DeSantis, Florida has become efficient at issuing warnings and ensuring that those at risk are evacuated. Those who insist on building on barrier islands or in flood zones may sustain damage. That was understood when they built there.
Tropical storms have been forming off the west coast of Africa, traveling across the Atlantic, and striking Florida and other places in the southeastern and eastern U.S. for millions if not billions of years. Over time, the climate changes and the intensity of tropical storms increases or declines. There were not many hurricanes during the Great Ice Age, when most of the northern Atlantic was filled with ice floes and one could literally hike across the ocean, if one wished, stepping from one patch of ice to the next.
Nor, presumably, was hurricane activity very great during the Little Ice Age, which extended up to the mid-nineteenth century. Since then, global temperatures have risen by about one degree Celsius. In other words, temperatures have risen by a very small amount (“one degree”) off a very cold base (the “Little Ice Age”). As one might expect, tropical storm activity has not increased by much, despite everything that liberal media and government agencies try to do to convince you of it.
If you listen to the weather channels, with weathermen outside during storms hanging onto metal signs or wading into knee-high water, you would think it’s the end of the world. It is not.
I was quite comfortable during Hurricane Beryl, sitting on a lounge chair, watching an old movie (They Drive by Night) and not giving the storm much thought. In the case of a stronger storm, I will take more precautions, including having an interior space to move to if necessary or going to a shelter. But one thing I won’t do is spend days in fear or walk around complaining about global warming.
Life happens. Storms happen, and we live through them. If there is damage, we repair it. We live our lives, enjoying a high standard of living thanks to fossil fuels, even with the CO2 they emit into the atmosphere. Storms can be destructive; they can also transport a huge amount of water into drought-stricken areas and help restore the aquifers that we in central Florida depend on for fresh water.
Those who live in fear have allowed themselves to become enslaved by the left. I am a strong and independent-minded person who has chosen to live in a storm-prone region. It is a region of extraordinary beauty, and occasional disturbances like Debby are the price we pay for living here.
Debby won’t be the last hurricane I experiences at my home near the Gulf Coast. There will be others before I pass on, and probably others this year. But when the doomsters cry out that I’m going to get washed away, I just smile. Tomorrow I will be at the gym and pool as usual, enjoying another Florida sunrise and reflecting on how good I have it amid this “above average” hurricane activity.
Jeffrey Folks is the author of many books and articles on American culture including Heartland of the Imagination (2011).
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