Iran might carry out an attack on Israel in the coming days, potentially even before the upcoming Thursday summit on the hostage deal negotiations, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
This represents a shift from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was restraining Iran from launching a direct attack against Israel.
The most recent evaluation by the Israeli intelligence community, formed within the past 24 hours, indicates that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh.
The updated assessment of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh & may do within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks, per 2 sources
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) August 11, 2024
The sources noted that this marks a significant change from recent assessments, which suggested that international pressure was preventing Iran from executing a direct strike against Israel.
Internal debate in Iran
A source with knowledge of the situation revealed that in recent days, there has been an internal debate in Iran between the Revolutionary Guards and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The debate centers on the nature and timing of the response to Haniyeh’s assassination. The Revolutionary Guards have been advocating for a more severe and widespread response than the April 13 attack, while the president and his advisors believe that such a harsh response should be avoided.
Another source familiar with the situation said that the situation “remains fluid,” with the internal debate in Iran ongoing, which means that Iranian decision-making could still change.
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari posted on X that there is no change in the Home Front Command directives following reports of an upcoming Iranian attack, saying that they will inform the public if any changes are necessary and that the IDF is monitoring enemy forces throughout the Middle East – with an emphasis on Iran and Hezbollah.
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