Iran is expected to skip a retaliatory strike on Israel if a Gaza ceasefire deal is reached, US President Joe Biden told reporters in New Orleans on Tuesday, stressing “That’s my expectation.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant left nothing to chance, stating in northern Israel that the IDF is prepared for defensive and offensive actions against Hezbollah and Iran, even as the United States pinned its hope for averting a regional war on Thursday’s hostage talks in Doha.
A hostage and Gaza ceasefire agreement would more “broadly, create conditions for diplomacy to get the region out of this cycle of violence,” US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington on Tuesday.
Three senior Iranian officials told Reuters that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack but is widely presumed to have carried it out.
Hezbollah is also seeking retaliation for the Israeli assassination of one of its senior commanders Fuad Shukr. A senior Iranian security official said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
Iran has been involved in intense dialog with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is working “round the clock.. to try and de-escalate and try to ensure that something doesn’t happen,” Patel said.
“He has been working the phones for the past number of weeks, continuing to echo the same message, which is, we are close to getting the ceasefire deal across the finish line,” Patel said.
Among the countries the US has turned to is Turkey in hopes that it can use its ties with Hamas and Iran to help de-escalate the situation.
Blinken approved sale to Israel of military equipment
Blinken on Tuesday approved the sale to Israel of different military equipment worth over $20 billion, the Pentagon said.
Blinken postponed his trip to the Middle East, delaying his planned Tuesday departure due to “uncertainty about the situation,” Axios reported. The trip had never been officially announced and the State Department has not confirmed the trip or the delay.
The White House announced, however, that special envoys Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein would visit the region, with the former traveling to Cairo and Doha and the latter heading to Beirut.
Gallant visited an intelligence base in northern Israel on Tuesday, stressing to the soldiers there that Israel is “preparing all the possibilities in order to be able to attack wherever we decide.”
“We are determined to fulfill our mission- we must ensure the safe return of [Israel’s northern] residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”
“We are closely following what is happening – also in Beirut, in Tehran, and in additional places,” Gallant stated.Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain a line of diplomatic communication” with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar, and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Israeli sources dismissed the possibility of an Iran presence in Doha.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller “symbolic” response, one of the sources said.
The US together with the main mediators for the deal Qatar and Egypt had announced Friday that Thursday’s talks would take place inviting both Israel and Hamas to attend, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had immediately pledged to send a team, while Hamas said there was no need to attend given that it had already agreed to the proposal US President Joe Biden had unveiled on May 31.
Patel said that Qatar had assured the United States that “they will work to have” Hamas representation there, adding, “We fully expect these talks to move forward.”
Netanyahu has been under fire both domestically and internationally for the absence of a deal, with his critics insisting that he had introduced new terms into the agreement, which Israel had first proposed to the US on May 27.
The Prime Minister’s Office said Tuesday that Netanyahu did not add any new conditions to the hostage deal and that such claims were false.
It contrasted the initial Israeli proposal of May 27 that was the basis of that document, with the clarifications Israel has set forward on July 27.
“The July 27 draft does not include new conditions and does not contradict the May 27 outline. Hamas is the one who demanded 29 changes – something that the prime minister opposed,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.
It focused on three issues that have been raised by Netanyahu himself and heavily debated in the media, including the New York Times piece.
The first was Israel’s refusal to allow armed terrorists to return to northern Gaza, which Netanyahu has set as one of his red lines for the deal.
Initially, the language around the issue stated that armed terrorists should not be allowed to return, but in July it said that there would need to be a screening process, according to the NYT.
The PMO said, “The July 27th draft document refers to the need to establish an agreed verification mechanism, in order to ensure that only unarmed civilians return to the northern Gaza Strip (a proposal put forward by the United States) – in accordance with the proposal in the May 27th outline.”
The Prime Minister’s Office secondly rejected the claim that it was adding in new conditions regarding the release of hostages in the first phase of the deal. Israeli officials have been blunt about their desire to see the maximal number of live hostages returned during that phase, in which humanitarian captives are set to be released. These are all women, elderly, and ill hostages.
“In the July 27 draft, it was stated that all living hostages in the relevant category should be released, in accordance with the May 27 outline, which stated that a certain number of abductees – alive or dead – would be released,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.
It also focused on the demand that Palestinian terrorists freed from Israeli jails as part of the deal would be exiled from the West Bank and Gaza and that Israel would have veto power over some of the names on the list.
“In the July 27 draft, no new conditions were specified. On the contrary – in the May 27 outline it was stated that Israel would have the right of veto over a certain number of released terrorists and that Israel would be able to deport at least a certain number of terrorists,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.
“The July 27 draft includes essential clarifications for the purpose of implementing what is written in the May 27 outline,” it stated.
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