A new Fox News poll shows former President Trump in the lead against Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris by 1-point in the 2024 matchup.
Surveying 1,105 registered voters between August 9-12 with a sampling error of ±3 percentage points, the poll showed Trump ahead of Harris by one-point – 50 percent to 49 percent. She also trailed him by one-point last month – 49 percent to 48 percent. Per Fox News:
Between those two surveys, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention was held, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee and selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held several campaign events with record-breaking attendance.
By one percentage point, more Democrats back Harris (94 percent) than Republicans support Trump (93 percent), while the small subgroup of Independents goes for him by 8 points.
Trump retains 95 percent of his 2020 backers and Harris carries 93 percent of 2020 Biden supporters, while new voters (those who haven’t voted in the four most recent general elections) split 49 percent each. Last month, new voters preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points.
On the gender front, men largely favor Trump by 12 points, while women favor Harris by 10. Trump remains strong among white evangelicals, rural voters, and non-college educated white men. Harris polls strongly with women, black voters, college graduates, and the youth vote. Even though Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who served in the national guard, as her running mate, Trump polls stronger with military veterans by 22 points. It remains unclear if the stolen valor accusations over whether or not Walz embellished his service for political gain has had any effect on those polls.
As Breitbart News reported recently, a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll showed former President Trump leading Harris nationally.
“The latest Daily Mail survey shows Trump still edging out Harris nationally by two percentage points, garnering 43 percent support to Harris’s 41 percent support. However, that two-point gap is outside the ± 3.1 percent margin of error, setting up what the Daily Mail describes as a ‘nail-biter of an election in November,’” said the report.
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