Tehran is reconsidering its approach to retaliation against Israel following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, Professor Uzi Rabi, head of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, explained to Nissim Mashal and Liat Ron in an interview on 103FM on Thursday morning.
“There is ongoing deliberation in Tehran. If we go back to the day after Haniyeh was eliminated, they spoke of revenge at the highest level. However, as days pass, it seems that Iran is having second thoughts, mainly due to the American buildup in the Middle East,” Rabi said.
“Currently, Iran even sees a chance in the Doha negotiations to gain more by seemingly delaying or suspending their response. The Iranians are essentially on a path of lowering expectations. A total war, which could ultimately be chaotic, could create severe problems for them with a faltering economy and potentially collapse it, as well as threats to the regime itself,” Rabi added.
“It’s important to remember that the populace is a potential enemy in such oppressive and dictatorial regimes. The regime perceives any unrest of this kind as something that could incite the already discontented population.”
Economic fallout
He addressed the cyber attack that struck Iran on Wednesday: “The cyber issue is a kind of warning, indicating what could happen if certain actions are taken. We’re discussing a country with power outages, water problems, and basic needs. If an attack targets the oil regions in Iran, it could be a blow from which they cannot recover economically. This is a very pragmatic and ruthless regime.”
Finally, Rabi addressed the issue of Iran working in tandem with Hezbollah.
“I don’t think the two will act together, and that needs to be taken into account. If Hezbollah responds too harshly, I hope that Israel will do what it needs to do and start responding with deep strikes on Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure. Then, France and everyone will be involved, and they’ll understand that as long as Hezbollah exists, it’s a problem. Israel needs to be more ruthless to shorten the process as it is entering a never-ending situation. We understand that they are under significant pressure and need to tailor a response that fits all the constraints. We need to recognize their difficulties and act accordingly. The American buildup is defensive,” Rabi concluded.
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