The differences between a future Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as US president are so numerous and substantive, from the rule of law to border security to taxes to Ukraine and NATO, and including in relation to Israel, that whole books could be written about them.
But on one important issue to Israel they actually seem to have similar positions: they both want the current Middle East War to end and anytime is not soon enough.
With Harris this is more obvious.
The Biden administration has been pushing for an end or a reduction of the war since sometime in December-January.
And Harris has made public statements to that effect ahead of current US President Joe Biden himself, and has repeated her desire to quickly end the war since becoming the Democratic candidate for president.
There is little doubt that if she wins, and with no need to worry about reelection for four years, that she, Biden, or both would lean on Israel much harder to end the war, including with potential escalating threats regarding aspects of the countries’ alliance.
Biden already froze one shipment of weapons to Israel in May to try to block an invasion of Rafah.
A desire for Israel to end the war may be less obvious for Trump, who is known for giving Israel, and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, much more unqualified support for military and covert action.
Less obvious though it may be, it is unmistakably Trump’s position.
Both he and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have articulated this position and doubled down on it when pressed.
They may have different reasons and tones for doing so.
Harris makes it clear that she wants an end to the war to spare additional suffering for Palestinian civilians.
Trump generally seems less interested in that issue per se, but has said that the extended war and pictures it creates are bad for Israel and can also reflect poorly indirectly on the US.
In addition, Trump as a matter of principle is against long wars due to the economic instability they create.
Misunderstanding Trump’s intentions
Once again, this is not to say that Trump and Harris do not have crucial differences, and with respect to Israel they certainly do on handling the International Criminal Court, their views of the Palestinians and managing “the Day After” in Gaza, on handling Iran, and on criticizing or supporting Israel’s use of force.
But lost in Israel’s following of the US election sometimes seems to be a wrong assumption that if Trump wins, Israel will have a free hand for a forever war in Gaza.
That certainly is not what he or Vance have said.
It may be true that they might say do whatever you need to do much more intensely and “taking off the gloves” for a short period – but after some period of weeks and probably not much more, Trump would likely wield his own threats to Israel to end the war so that he does not need to hear about it.
Netanyahu by the way seems to know this, though he has not alluded to it explicitly.
In May, his national security council chief Tzahi Hanegbi said that the war would be over in about seven months.
No one seemed to have a clue what his seemingly random number of months referred to, but the math is pretty simple: inauguration day in the US in 2025.
If Netanyahu knows that even Trump would force an end to the war, then what is his advantage to drag it out for a few more months.
The Day After
This is where differences between Harris and Trump may be important regarding the Day After.
One reason Netanyahu has avoided ending the war – right or wrong – is to shape post-war Gaza in a way that leaves both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority weak.
The Biden administration and Harris, in contrast, want to strengthen the PA and give them a foothold in Gaza.
Netanyahu may be calculating that Trump might pressure the Saudis, the UAE, and Egypt harder to play ball with his plan of leaving the PA flailing in the wind, such that he is willing to take hits in other arenas in the meantime.
In any event, those Israelis who think that Israel has unlimited time on its side to batter Hamas on a large scale (as opposed to smaller scale in and out raids like it does in the West Bank) have not followed the US presidential contest closely enough.
There are substantive debates about whether the current hostage exchange – ceasefire deal on the table is the right one to take or not. But Israel only has a few more months to play with to get to whatever deal it thinks is best before a deal will likely be imposed from outside.
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