RJC anticipates Trump pocketing 50% of Jewish votes in battleground states, above 30% nationwide
The Republican Jewish Coalition‘s political campaign arm has strengthened its data operations through what CEO Matt Brooks calls “the only real viable voter file of Jewish voters in the country.”
Brooks said historically such a Jewish voter file hasn’t existed to reliably target, identify and turn out Jewish voters.
“We have quietly been building under the radar over the last several years. We have been putting staff and deploying resources,” Brooks said. “So we now have staff in Nevada, we have paid staff in Georgia, we have paid staff in Michigan, we have paid staff in Pennsylvania and in Arizona. And we have been doing this quietly since the last election, building up to this moment.”
RJC has rated every Jewish voter in those battleground states as “likely Trump voters, lean Trump voters, persuadables and never Trump voters,” Brooks said.
“We’re going to focus on those three tiers. We’re going to identify and make sure we turn out our lead,” he said. “Trump voters are solid, committed, pro-Trump voters, and we’re going to work with a message to the persuadables to bring them over and turn them out on election day.”
Tactics include digital ads, TV, mail, text, phone, door knocking, canvassing. “The whole gamut,” Brooks said.
Ari Fleischer, RJC board member and press secretary under former President George W. Bush, said this campaign cycle will be different because American Jewry is changing.
Intra-Jewish tensions
Fleischer said there’s always been a tension in the Jewish community between typical Democratic voters who think domestic issues, abortion, fear of the Christian right is a dominant issue; versus typical Republican voters who think foreign policy, a strong military, and protecting Israel as a nation are priority issues.
“What’s changed in this cycle is this palpable sense of fear because of what’s happening in America, because of what’s happening on campuses, because of what happened in Israel on October 7, and every day since,” Fleischer said. “The American Jewry has never had their ears more open to potentially voting Republican than in this cycle.”
Fleischer noted the trend of rising Jewish Republican support over the past 30 years, with George H.W. Bush only earning 11% of the Jewish vote in 1992, Sen. Bob Dole earning 16% in 1996 and George W. Bush earning 19% of the Jewish vote in 2000.
George W. Bush got 25% when he ran for reelection, according to Fleischer, with Sen. Mitt Romney and Trump each earning about 0% of the Jewish vote.
Fleischer was hesitant to make an exact prediction on what the Jewish split will be, but he said in the battleground states it might be close to 50% of the Jewish vote going to Trump.
Nationally, Fleischer said he expects to see above 30% of the Jewish vote for Trump.
“I don’t know how much above 30, but that’s what I mean about the ears of the Jewish community are open this cycle more than previously, because of the events around the world and what we see in America,” Fleischer said. “It’s one thing for it to be theoretical, it’s now physical. It’s palpable on the American street.”
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