NOT EVEN CLOSE: Top Pollster Finds Trump Gaining Momentum Against Harris – with 58% Chance of Winning 2024 Race; Trump Poised to Win Electoral College, Pollster Nate Silver Says

Top pollster finds Trump gaining momentum against Harris – with 58% chance of winning 2024 race:

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have surged in the last month while Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to find “a 2nd gear,” according to polling guru Nate Silver.

The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance.

“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in his latest election forecast bulletin. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.”

Silver’s model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote — which has no bearing on the winner of the race — but that Trump will rack up 274 Electoral College votes, topping the vice president’s 263 estimated Electoral College total.

Two-hundred seventy Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.

“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what,” Silver noted on X. —>READ MORE HERE

Trump poised to win Electoral College, pollster Nate Silver says:

Polling guru Nate Silver says his model gives former President Donald Trump nearly a 60% chance of winning the election, his best odds in more than a month.

The election forecast model, he wrote this on his Substack, gives Mr. Trump a 58.2% chance of getting an Electoral College majority, versus a 41.6% chance that Vice President Kamala Harris will do so.

As recently as last Thursday, Mr. Trump’s chances were only 52.4% to his Democratic opponent’s 47.3%.

“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Mr. Silver wrote.

Mr. Silver attributed the change in his model, which is based on state-level polling and Electoral College outcomes rather than the overall national popular vote, to recent surveys in Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus Ms. Harris’ failure to get a big bounce from the recent Democratic National Convention. —>READ MORE HERE

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