ICYMI: Pro-Democrat Samples Fuel Harris Surge; Unfavorable Vice President Closes Gap With Trump in Polls; Kamala Harris’ Polling Lead Questioned Amid Allegations of Oversampling Democratic Voters

Pro-Democrat samples fuel Harris surge; unfavorable vice president closes gap with Trump in polls:

Vice President Kamala Harris’ growing lead in the polls may be exaggerated by oversampling Democratic voters, and some critics say it’s an intentional bid to bolster her momentum.

Democrats are celebrating after Ms. Harris closed the poll gap with former President Donald Trump and even surpassed him nationally and in some battleground states.

A few weeks ago, Mr. Trump held a consistent lead in nearly every critical poll in a matchup with President Biden. Ms. Harris has more than caught up with Mr. Trump since replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket on July 21.

She is ahead of Mr. Trump nationally by nearly 2 percentage points and leading slightly or tying Mr. Trump in all seven battleground states.

Republican Party analysts say polling methodology gives Ms. Harris a phantom advantage because many polls sample a far smaller share of Republicans than exit poll showings from the 2020 presidential election.

In other words, critics say, the polls oversample Democrats, perhaps purposely, to generate enthusiasm and boost fundraising for Ms. Harris. Last week, the Harris campaign announced it had raised $540 million in July, more than four times the amount Mr. Trump raised in the same period.

Mr. Trump, who is in a dead heat with Ms. Harris after leading Mr. Biden for weeks, mocked the oversampling of Democrats.

“It’s fake news,” Mr. Trump said during a rally in Michigan. “They can make those polls sing.”

Ms. Harris’ advancement in the polls has undoubtedly fueled excitement and donations.

She opened a 5-point lead over Mr. Trump in a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Thursday. The 48% to 43% results in favor of Ms. Harris represent an 8-point turnaround from June when Mr. Trump was 4 points ahead of Mr. Biden.

Like several other major polls showing a Harris lead, the survey included more answers from those identifying as Democrats, 37.10%, than Republicans, 33.8%, according to the data. Among those polled, 48% said they voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 and 41.6% said they chose Mr. Trump.

Democrats also outnumbered Republican respondents in a poll released on Aug. 27 by Yahoo News and YouGov. This poll found Ms. Harris ahead of Mr. Trump by 47% to 46%.

Among those who participated in the poll, 33% identified as Democrats and 29% as Republicans. The percentage of Republican participants was significantly below the 2020 exit polling, in which 36% of voters identified as Republican.

In the same 2020 exit poll, 37% of voters identified as Democratic, a 1-point advantage over Republicans.

The Yahoo/YouGov poll showed Mr. Trump winning independents by 44% to 35% over Ms. Harris. The former president had a 17-point advantage with seniors in the poll and picked up 13% of Black voters and 39% of Hispanic voters.

Mr. Trump’s poll numbers “are all significantly better than 2020,” said Jim McLaughlin, who polls for the former president. “How can they have Donald Trump losing? It’s simple. They undersample Republicans.”

The skewed sample, Mr. McLaughlin said, aims to “tamp down support and donations for Trump.” —>READ MORE HERE

Kamala Harris’ Polling Lead Questioned Amid Allegations of Oversampling Democratic Voters:

Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a surge in the polls, leading former President Donald Trump nationally and in key battleground states. However, critics are questioning whether her growing lead is inflated by polls that oversample Democratic voters. Some suggest this could be a deliberate tactic to boost her momentum and fundraising efforts.

Democrats are celebrating Harris’s unexpected rise since she replaced President Biden on the ticket on July 21. While Trump had been maintaining a consistent lead against Biden, Harris has pulled ahead, now leading Trump by nearly 2 points nationally and either tying or leading in all seven battleground states. Despite this, GOP analysts argue that many polls are skewed by sampling fewer Republicans than participated in the 2020 election, which could give Harris a misleading advantage.

Critics contend that the oversampling of Democrats may be a strategy to generate enthusiasm and increase fundraising for Harris. The Harris campaign recently announced raising $540 million in July, more than four times the amount raised by Trump during the same period. Trump, confronted with this unexpectedly close race, dismissed the polls as “fake news” at a Michigan rally, accusing them of being manipulated. “They can make those polls sing,” he said.

Polling expert Frank Luntz has echoed similar concerns about Harris’s recent debate performance and her polling numbers. During a CNBC segment, Luntz stated, “I was surprised, quite frankly. I was not impressed as an observer and someone who was expecting more from her with this much time to get prepared.” He suggested that Harris’s performance in her CNN interview indicates she would likely lose a debate against Trump.

The latest Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Thursday shows Harris with a five-point lead over Trump, a notable eight-point turnaround from June when Trump led Biden by four points. This poll, like others showing a Harris lead, included a higher percentage of Democratic respondents—37.1% Democrats compared to 33.8% Republicans. Furthermore, 48% of those polled said they voted for Biden in 2020, compared to 41.6% who said they voted for Trump, raising further questions about the polling methodology.

Another poll by Yahoo News and YouGov released on August 27 also showed Harris ahead of Trump by a narrow margin, with 33% of participants identifying as Democrats and 29% as Republicans. Notably, this percentage of GOP respondents is below the 2020 exit poll data, which showed 36% of voters identifying as Republican. Critics argue that this discrepancy in sampling could be skewing the results in Harris’s favor.

Jim McLaughlin, Trump’s pollster, highlighted these discrepancies, saying, “They undersample Republicans,” which he believes is an attempt to “tamp down support and donations for Trump.” This skepticism is shared by other analysts who question Harris’s ability to rise in the polls without a significant improvement in her historically low approval ratings, which have only slightly increased since she began her presidential campaign. —>READ MORE HERE

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