Over the last month, the IDF has cemented the defeat of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas. This is an important achievement. It is an example of how difficult defeating Hamas has become. Rafah could be seen as a microcosm of the challenge in Gaza in general. This leads to many questions, including what may come next after Rafah.
Rafah was initially a challenge because of opposition from the international community to Israel launching an operation there. Second, it was a challenge because around a million people were sheltering in Rafah and its environs.
Once the people had evacuated and the international community was placated, Israel was able to proceed in the city and border area.
Hamas had used the Rafah border crossing to bring in weapons and materials that it used to fuel its war machine. It also had constructed up to 20 miles of tunnels under Rafah, and in areas nearby, connecting Rafah to Tel al-Sultan and Khan Yunis. Beyond the tunnels, Hamas also had time to festoon the area with booby traps.
The IDF moved into Rafah to secure the border with Egypt and search for tunnels and hostages. The operation was slow, making sure civilians could evacuate, it took three months to defeat Hamas.
Although the IDF said that the Hamas Rafah brigade of some 2,000 men were eliminated, it’s unclear if all of the Hamas members in Rafah were killed, or if some were able to flee to Khan Yunis and other areas.
While it’s clear Hamas has taken losses, it continues to control and exploit humanitarian aid and use it to profit so it can recruit more Hamas fighters.
Philadelphi Corridor
Once the IDF secured Rafah, it was able to cement control along the Philadelphi route along the border. Now, this area has a new road and the IDF is securing it with various means.
However, the 162nd IDF division that defeated Hamas in Rafah has now been fighting since the war began. This is another challenge in the war. IDF units have been put to the test through unprecedented long operations.
With the defeat of Hamas in Rafah, it begs the question, what comes next?
The IDF now controls two corridors in Gaza. One is along the Egyptian border and the other is in central Gaza and is called the Netzarim corridor. It cuts off Gaza City from central Gaza’s main towns; Nuseirat, Maghazi, Bureij and Deir al-Balah. These areas are all controlled by Hamas.
Hamas has freedom of movement in central Gaza and also between that area and Khan Yunis. Hamas also has an extensive presence in Gaza City. The control of these areas is a challenge for Israel’s policy and what may come next.
Israel could choose to go back into Gaza City or go into the central Camps for the first time. If the goal is to actually defeat Hamas, then Israel will need to go in. But, if the goal is just to weaken Hamas and let it control Gaza in the long term, then there won’t be another major operation.
The end of Hamas in Rafah is a crossroads in the war, as the battle to destroy Hamas is now almost a year old.
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