Tuesday marked the largest single-day loss for Hezbollah in the 11 months of its conflict with Israel, which began when it attacked the North on October 8. This has also taken the largest toll on the organization since the Second Lebanon War in 2006. While the group has lost around 450 fighters since October 8, it has usually only lost one or two every few days. What happened on Tuesday and Wednesday may now force Hezbollah to rethink its tactics.
Hezbollah has relied on attacks on northern Israel using rockets, drones, and anti-tank missiles for 11 months. What it has said about its losses on Tuesday is quite revealing. According to a statement provided to Iranian media, it stated that among the dead were Hussein Ali Alauddin ‘Zakaria’ and Hossein Ayub Faqih ‘Baqer.’ It is unclear what significance the nicknames or “war names” have. These are likely the nicknames that were used in connection to Hezbollah. So, the terrorists’ full names have now been disclosed.
Moreover, the other members killed per the report were Abbas Bilal Manem, Hasan Ahmad Muhammad, Youssef Ghazat Alwa, Hussein Ahmad Mentash nicknamed ‘Salah,’ Mohammad Zakaria Abbas ‘Hydera,’ Najib Abdul Hossein Alauddin ‘Ali Mazloum,’ and Hassan Mohammad Yassin. The announcement came with images of the men in military-style fatigues, some shown with weapons, and most smiling. This is typical of the death announcement photos Hezbollah has released in the last 11 months.
Hezbollah has condemned Israel for the strike, claiming “the treacherous and criminal enemy will definitely see retaliation for this sinful aggression,” talking up a “heavy price” that it says Israel will pay for the pager attack. Hezbollah and Iranian media characterized it as a “terrorist” attack. Al-Manar, the Hezbollah media arm, said the attack will “double our determination for jihad,” and Hezbollah itself added, “We will continue to support Gaza and its resistance and defend Lebanon, its nation, and its sovereignty.”
THE FACT THAT the attack has affected so many Hezbollah men, including a member of Lebanon’s parliament and Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, will put pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to respond, which could lead to a new phase of the war with Israel.
What might the new phase look like?
So, what might this look like? Hezbollah could plan another large rocket barrage, as it did on August 25, when it had planned to fire thousands of rockets at Israel. The IDF preempted that with airstrikes. Hezbollah sufficed to fire only several hundred rockets at around a dozen targets.
It will still want to surpass that attack, which was in response to the IDF strike that killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. That came in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 children and teens in Majdal Shams in northern Israel. The terrorist group will want to carry out some kind of quality attack and show that it can succeed, unlike its failure on August 25.
The Wednesday attacks will create a snowballing effect of pressure. But Hezbollah is in a position where it will want to weigh its options with Iran and other Iranian-backed proxies, such as the Houthis and militias in Iraq, as to its next steps.
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