The IDF pendulum of upping and lowering its level of attacks on Hezbollah has been dizzying.
From last week up until Monday, there was a clear linear escalation policy.
Dozens of attacks became hundreds, and hundreds on Monday jumped to 1,300, making Monday the most destructive day of fighting with Lebanon since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
But by Tuesday, the IDF had slowed down.
There were still hundreds of attacks, but it seemed that the ratio of attacks dropped around five times or more.
Likewise, early Wednesday morning, the IDF was attacking Hezbollah, but referencing dozens of attacks, down from hundreds, let alone 1,300 in a day.
Further, it seemed like the IDF attacks were mostly focused on southern Lebanon, which would be less aggressive than Monday’s attacks, which included the deeper and more strategic (in value to Hezbollah and in holding longer range and more powerful weapons) Bekaa Valley.
New air strikes in Lebanon
Suddenly, around 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the IDF said it was unleashing another series of massive air strikes not just on southern Lebanon but also on the Bekaa Valley.
How massive are the attacks – we will need to wait some minutes or hours to get further details.
But after Hezbollah raised the ante by firing at Tel Aviv and firing multiple times south of Haifa into the Zichron Yaakov and other central Israel areas closer to Tel Aviv, it is unclear if the IDF only escalates a little bit or “only” does the same thing it did on Monday, will be seen as anything new which could influence Hezbollah to agree to a separate ceasefire from the war in Gaza.
If Israel is doing this to gain time for secret diplomatic contacts and behind the scenes, Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah is expressing more flexibility to end the northern border conflict, then maybe the pendulum strategy might have merit.
If Israel is just setting up the pieces for a much larger and imminent attack, which might change Nasrallah’s calculus, then a very short pause could also make sense.
But if the pendulum of ups and downs in attacks is just a show of the fact that the government is not sure what to do next, then the price for its indecision is placing a full third of the country from Haifa northward under lockdown now for five days with no end in sight, and more areas of the country potentially entering the same state.
This is not to mention the 60,000 evacuees from the northern border who have been stuck for a year, the Israeli hostages stuck in Gaza, and the continuing drop in Israeli legitimacy taking place worldwide until Jerusalem wraps up the entire conflict.
Comments are closed.