Nasrallah assassination attempt: Risks, consequences, and new opportunities for the Middle East

The strike on the bunker of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is nothing short of a seismic event in the Middle East. With Israel having shifted the rules of the game, what comes next? The risk of a broader conflict has risen, but there are also opportunities for a comprehensive settlement—everything now hinges on Hezbollah’s response.

The intent behind Friday’s strike on Hezbollah’s central headquarters—aimed at hitting Nasrallah—represents a regional shakeup, increasing the likelihood of a wider escalation while also creating chances for a comprehensive agreement.

A shift in the rules of engagement

First and foremost, the move signals a “change in the rules of engagement” in the fight against the so-called axis of evil. The assassination attempt, whose success remains unconfirmed, sends a clear message of Israeli resolve and boldness to the entire region, particularly Iran.

This is undoubtedly a regionally destabilizing event. If the operation succeeds, it opens significant opportunities in the battle against terrorism in the north with Hezbollah and in the south with Hamas, as well as a chance to pursue regional agreements.

What happens next?

The IDF must now brace for various scenarios and their implications, both in terms of defending Israel and continuing its offensive operations.

The most extreme scenario involves Iran unleashing Hezbollah and the Houthis, allowing them to launch an extensive missile and drone attack on Israel’s home front. In an even more severe scenario, Iran itself could join the conflict directly with strikes from its territory, although this possibility is considered low.

A second, more plausible scenario involves targeted retaliation by members of the Axis of Evil and other terrorist groups, which could lead to attacks from multiple fronts, as well as spontaneous incidents in Judea and Samaria.

The central question is whether, regardless of the strike’s outcome, Hezbollah’s leadership will stick to its hardline stance against Israel, continuing to tie the organization’s fate to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, or whether it will reconsider its strategy.

In response, the IDF has raised its alert level to the highest across land, sea, and air defenses and is prepared for attacks should the situation deteriorate. Additionally, the IDF has reinforced the Northern Command with two infantry brigades to prepare for potential reinforcements in Judea and Samaria and, if necessary, ground maneuvers in Lebanon.

JPost