US spies fear ‘lethal retaliation’ from Russia – NYT

US intelligence agencies are warning that Moscow may retaliate against Kiev’s Western sponsors directly if they permit Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

According to an intelligence assessment cited by the NYT, analysts believe that even if Ukrainians are allowed to use the missiles freely, it will not significantly impact the conflict due to their limited numbers. Furthermore, after initial strikes, the Russians would likely relocate vital functions out of range, making it harder for Ukraine to achieve any military objectives.

Moreover, such a decision would be a high-stakes gamble, as it could lead to “lethal” attacks on US military assets worldwide, the NYT noted.

Russia’s potential responses could range “from stepped-up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe to potentially lethal attacks on US and European military bases,” according to the assessment. US officials reportedly believe that if Moscow decides to retaliate, it will likely do so “covertly” rather than through overt attacks to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.

The US and its allies have provided Ukraine with three types of long-range missile systems: American-made ATACMS, British Storm Shadows, and French SCALP missiles. Kyiv has repeatedly used these missiles to target infrastructure and terrorize civilians in Crimea and other regions annexed by Russia.

Kyiv has been demanding that the US and its allies lift all restrictions on the use of these weapons to strike deeper into Russia. The West cites these limitations to argue that it is not directly involved in the conflict while supplying Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has argued that such a move would directly involve the US and NATO in open war against Russia, as Kiev relies on receiving target coordinates for precision weapons from the US military. He also previously advised NATO members to be aware of “what they are playing with,” warning that one possible response could involve arming adversaries of the West with long-range precision weapons.

Additionally, under proposed updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine announced Wednesday, Moscow would consider “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, with participation or support from a nuclear state” as a “joint attack,” which could cross the nuclear threshold.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his so-called “victory plan” to the US this week, hoping to persuade President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Earlier, Britain and France indicated they were prepared to allow Ukraine to freely use their long-range cruise missiles, but only with Washington’s permission first.