Despite swirling rumors, Israel has not yet decided to invade Lebanon as part of the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, multiple top sources have told the Jerusalem Post.
If the IDF does decide to invade, the current initial plan would be a limited invasion in southern Lebanon or in parts of southern Lebanon.
The situation is highly dynamic and could change at any moment, especially if Hezbollah manages to achieve a more deadly hit or hits on Israel’s home front than it has achieved to date.
In that case, Israel might need to move up its schedule for invading and also might need to invade deeper into Lebanon to reduce the rocket fire more rapidly.
No final decision on ground operations
However, even after the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah this past Friday, the IDF and the government have not yet made a final decision about whether a ground invasion will be necessary to get Hezbollah to agree to withdraw its forces to the Litani River or some similar defense line which would provide greater security assurances to 60,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from the northern border for nearly a year.
At this point, Israel prefers to see whether the new Hezbollah leader, as yet unannounced, will take a more pragmatic approach to ending the current conflict, though there are significant doubts about this.
It is also hoped that holding off an invasion to give some more potential time to diplomacy will assuage US anger at Israel for killing Nasrallah and achieve more “slack” with the US when and if an invasion is necessary.
Many of the reports of an imminent invasion by Israel are focused on lower scale troop movements toward and in the environs of the border, but such preparations would be necessary even if an invasion did not occur for another week or multiple weeks.
While no invasion decision is necessarily imminent, if the IDF invades, there is pressure to start the invasion within weeks or less in order to try to wrap up any serious fighting in the ground before the harsh mountainous Lebanese winter, especially before December.
There are some debates within the defense establishment about whether any serious ground fighting should be wrapped up before late October – early November, the very start of the rainy season.
In contrast, other defense officials believe that until December, the rainy season will not be a heavy hindrance.
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