The elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is an important potential turning point in the region. Now that Iran’s system of proxies has been punctured, the air could be let out of them, and they could be deflated. However, the proxies are powerful, and they don’t appear to want to exit the stage soon.
This leads to key questions about what may come next.
Other countries have an interest in reducing Iran’s and its proxies’ power. However, Iran has positioned itself in recent years to take advantage of the divisions in the region and the desire of many countries to seek accommodation rather than confrontation.
What does this mean practically?
Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to China-backed reconciliation more than a year ago. This means that Beijing is interested in keeping things peaceful between Riyadh and Tehran. In addition, Turkey believes that Israel is a greater enemy to Ankara than Tehran.
Turkey is a NATO member, and Qatar is a major non-NATO ally. Both of them back Hamas and have excoriated Israel in recent weeks. That means that key US allies in the region back Hamas. Most importantly, they don’t want to see any changes in the region regarding Iran. If anything, they don’t mind Iran’s role.
Other countries that might potentially look in favor of a weakened Hezbollah are not willing to step up to the plate and discuss what comes next openly. Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt don’t seem to want to make moves. This leaves Israel mostly alone in the region.
Israel has felt increasingly alone since the Hamas attacks on October 7. This doesn’t mean Israel is alone, but public statements and visuals matter. When other countries in the region meet without Israel, they are sending a message. The absence of key meetings of the Negev Forum which brings together peace partners of Israel in the region, is an important hole in the need for regional integration and cooperation for Israel. This is where the big question mark will hang after Nasrallah’s demise.
The region badly needs countries that care about stability to step up and be willing to do more in Lebanon and in Gaza. Iran’s backing of proxies is destroying the region. It is harming many countries and brought ruin to Gaza. It has also now brought potential war to Lebanon, as Israel has shown it is serious about stopping Hezbollah rocket fire.
For too long the region suffered under the use of rockets by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza.
Now is the time for countries to choose to back stability – if they don’t then the demise of Nasrallah could be wasted.
A post-Nasrallah strategy for Lebanon
Israel will need to spell out a post-Nasrallah strategy. It will be important to see if the western countries will get behind any initiatives that come from Jerusalem. Over the past year many western countries have taken a kind of wait-and-see approach. Now they have a chance to do more.
An election in the US and the general posture of France and the UK mean that the opportunity to do more in Lebanon could be squandered. Setting out a road-map for a potential Lebanon free of Hezbollah would be a good start.
However, it’s unclear if that vision will gain traction in the region, or even in Lebanon. The statements by Lebanese political leaders and key figures such as Saad Hariri, do not bode well. They seem more interested in memorializing Nasrallah than finally standing up to Hezbollah.
Without a Lebanese initiative that also is willing to do more to fill the vacuum left by Nasrallah’s absence, the potential for backsliding back into the Nasrallah era will remain. Iran wants this to happen. Iran understands the inertia is on its side, time seems to be on its side. That is what Tehran thinks. It thinks China and Russia will bolster anti-western forces in the region. All Iran has to do is wait, even if it has to watch its proxies take losses.
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