Following Hezbollah’s success at striking the Haifa area on Tuesday, the IDF later Tuesday and early Wednesday significantly increased its pace of airstrikes to try to roll back the groups’ rocket attacks.
The IDF announced on Wednesday that it had upped its airstrikes over the last 24 hours to 185 targets across all of Lebanon.
This was a significant increase compared to days when the strikes were in the dozens or even from Monday when the air force struck around 120 targets, but almost exclusively in southern Lebanon.
IDF strikes in southern Lebanon (Credit: IDF’ Spokesperson’s Unit)
Also, the targets were once again more spread out as opposed to being focused on the south, which had been the trend since the IDF invasion started on September 30. These changes could also mark a shift in strategy as the IDF possibly moves into a third phase of its major moves against Hezbollah, which started in mid-September.
The phases in question
The first phase saw two days of Hezbollah operatives and communications being torn apart by beeper and walkie-walkie explosions. It also included the killing of Ibrahim Aqil and around 20 of his top sub-commanders of the Radwan special forces. On September 23, it included the air force hitting 1,300 targets in only one day. Finally, on September 27, it included the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as well as a number of other top Hezbollah officials, like Ali Karaki.
IDF officials have said that the strategy for Phase I was to disable Hezbollah’s capability to harm the Israeli home front in a devastating way as well as to lay the groundwork for a potential invasion if needed.
Phase two saw the invasion of southern Lebanon to take apart Hezbollah’s Radwan potential invasion weapons, tunnels, and positions. The air force, likewise, since September 30, has focused much more on southern Lebanon, especially providing real-time support to maneuvering ground forces facing ambushes from Hezbollah.
Every few days, the IDF sent in an additional division: first Division 98, then Division 36, then Division 91, and on Tuesday, Division 143, with more increases expected. They have increased the pace of destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in certain southern Lebanon villages, such as Mavarchin.
However, in what might be Phase 3, Division 98 is already receiving new maneuvering orders and IDF sources have said that they believe some initial missions of clearing Hezbollah positions will soon be taken care of sufficiently to move on to additional missions.
In turn, the air force may be refocusing on wider rocket threats throughout Lebanon.
If by September 30, it was assumed that Hezbollah’s failure to fire deeper into Israel and cause serious damage had shown they were truly losing that capability, Tuesday’s attacks on the Haifa area may have convinced top defense officials to return to striking beyond southern Lebanon to cause greater damage to those long-range capabilities.
All of this could be a prelude to the IDF shifting its focus from merely clearing southern Lebanon of Hezbollah’s presence to also trying to truly get the longer-range rocket threat under control.
These new efforts come with as the military also faces increased time pressure to succeed in restoring security for 60,000 northern border residents as Lebanon’s mountainous winter and the November 5 US presidential election both bear down on the timing calculus.
