The D Brief: Baltics raise defenses; Israel orders hospital evacuations; Another Russian arms dump struck; New polls on Taiwan; And a bit more.
Lithuania’s military says it’s ready to blow up its bridges to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, which is located on the Baltic coast between Poland and Lithuania.
The Lithuanians have placed vehicle obstacles known as “dragon’s teeth” on a bridge over the Nemunas River, which leads to Kaliningrad. Those obstacles “will eventually be supplemented with iron beams, which will be sunk in and anchored,” Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas said Wednesday on Facebook with an illustrating photo. “The Lithuanian army is now testing them, evaluating how they hold back the advancing heavy equipment.”
“Fortifications will be supported by firepower, in case it’s needed, to stop and destroy the enemy…with some bridges set to be demolished,” the Lithuanian Defense Ministry said Wednesday on social media.
Context: “Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania agreed to build a Baltic defense line in the coming years to strengthen the eastern border with Belarus and Russia, the Estonian Defense Ministry said on Jan. 19,” the Kyiv Independent reports. “Russia’s war in Ukraine has shown that, in addition to equipment, ammunition and manpower, we also need physical defense facilities on the border to protect Estonia from the first meter,” Estonia’s defense minister said at the time.
Rewind: You may recall that when Defense One traveled to Denmark in 2019 to observe Danish military training, troops spent part of their time rehearsing river crossings in anticipation of a possible invasion by the Russian military.
“Our major problem fighting in an environment like the Baltics would be bridging capacity,” one officer explained. “There are so many rivers, and they are so wide, and we only have bridges that can stretch 20 meters. And we don’t have very many bridges. And that’s as I see it our major challenge to fighting in the Baltics.”
For what it’s worth: Most of Kaliningrad’s border with Lithuania follows either the Nemunas or Šešupė rivers.
Additional reading:
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 2006, North Korea carried out its first nuclear weapons test.
Israel plows ahead with Gaza, Lebanon campaigns. Israeli military officials told three northern-Gaza hospitals to evacuate ahead of intensifying strikes on the area, Gazan health officials said. “A U.N. official described the situation in the north as ‘hell,’ with ‘at least 400,000 people’ trapped there,” the Washington Post reports.
Back in Washington, the Biden administration has dropped its support for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon and is openly supporting Israel’s ground offensive, a State Department spokesman said Tuesday, calling the Israeli actions “incursions to degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure.” President Joe Biden is expected to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the president’s planning.
Developing: The U.S. military has inventoried available weapons in Europe for possible use by Ukraine, CNN reported Tuesday as Ukrainian officials continue pitching a possible “victory plan” in response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which has been ongoing for more than two and a half years.
Involved: “The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, a type of air-launched cruise missile, and a communications system known as the Link 16 — a data sharing network used by the US and NATO,” CNN reported, citing “an annex attached to a classified report” delivered to Congress in early September.
Fine print: “US officials have previously expressed concerns about sensitive US technology falling into Russian hands, which one source said is likely the holdup with the Link 16 system.” And the missiles, “which are fired from fighter jets, might not be useful to the Ukrainians unless they achieve some level of air superiority.” Continue reading (new paywall alert) at CNN, here.
By the way: The Pentagon-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group has postponed its latest meeting scheduled for this weekend. “Due to Hurricane Milton, President Biden is no longer traveling to Ramstein to participate in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said Tuesday. “We are still working through what that means for [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s] schedule, but when we have an update, we’ll be happy to share,” she said.
Ukraine says it has blown up another Russian weapons depot, this time with North Korean weapons destroyed as well, the General Staff announced on Facebook.
Alleged location: The Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the Bryansk region, Ukrainian officials said. The strike occurred late Tuesday and featured troops with Ukraine’s drone forces.
“The arsenal stored ammunition for missile and artillery systems, including those delivered from North Korea, as well as glide bombs,” the General Staff said, adding, “Much of the ammunition was stored in the open.”
Relatedly, Russian authorities declared a “state of emergency” in the region Ukraine says it attacked overnight, according to Reuters. “The Bryansk emergencies ministry said the situation was under control, and made no mention of a weapons arsenal,” the wire service reports.
How to build a multi-sensor anti-drone dashboard in just two weeks. Today’s air-defense troops must bounce between multiple systems, wasting precious seconds as they scramble to identify incoming drones. But it doesn’t have to be that way, according to a recent experiment. In just two weeks, private companies led by U.S. Central Command managed to integrate multiple sensors onto a single display that Army troops tested in upstate New York. While the tech won’t be sent to the Middle East just yet, officials hope it will serve as a building block for future efforts. Defense One’s Sam Skove reports.
Taking a public pulse, Taiwanese version: Most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade in the next five years, according to a survey conducted last month by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, which Reuters calls Taiwan’s top military think tank. Key results: 61% of respondents believe an attack is “unlikely or very unlikely.” More than 67% said they would fight back if China did invade, but were about evenly split over whether Taiwan’s military could actually turn back an invasion. Some 74% believed the U.S. government was likely to “indirectly” help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies, and weapons, but just 52% thought the U.S. would send military forces to fight. Read more from Reuters, here.
U.S. version: If China invades Taiwan, Americans would support airlifting supplies (74%) and sending weapons to Taipei (59%) but not putting US forces into a position that could lead to war with China (58% oppose)—all that according to respondents to a recent survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Other findings: 51% said the U.S. should encourage Taiwan to maintain the status quo rather than move toward independence (36%) or unification (4%). Just 42% want to commit to defend Taiwan from China, but more support Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations (59%) and want a U.S.-Taiwan free trade agreement (62%). Much more from the survey, here.
Lastly today: Hurricane Helene misinformation has gotten so bad that North Carolina GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards felt the need to publish a message Tuesday “Debunking Helene Response Myths.”
#1. “Hurricane Helene was NOT geoengineered by the government to seize and access lithium deposits in Chimney Rock,” North Carolina.
#4. “FEMA has NOT diverted disaster response funding to the border or foreign aid” like Ukraine or Israel.
#6. “FEMA cannot seize your property or land,” and several more that remind us of the susceptibility of our fellow citizens who might fall prey to low-integrity or emotionally-charged information.
This may be the last day for Floridians around Tampa to flee the vicinity before Hurricane Milton makes landfall sometime overnight and early Thursday. The storm has been vacillating between category four and five status over the past 72 hours.
“The track of Hurricane Milton continues to be a worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay region southward to Charlotte,” the National Weather Service said Wednesday.
“Milton has grown in size over the last 24 hours, with tropical-storm-force winds now up to 125 miles from its center,” the Weather Channel reported Wednesday morning. “It will continue to grow even larger on approach to Florida, which means its impacts will affect a big area.”
Read more: AP has a live blog tracking the storm’s progress here.
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