What does BRICS expansion mean for Africa?

In January, BRICS welcomed four new members into its ranks – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, with Saudi Arabia currently finalizing the accession process. The inclusion of two more African nations, Egypt and Ethiopia, in the group has significantly amplified their influence on the continent while giving them a global platform to shape not only regional but also international policies. Both of them are regional leaders with diversified economies and significant population, and thus their membership works both ways by providing other member countries wider access to African markets. However, along with opportunities come challenges connected to strained relations between Egypt and Ethiopia caused by a dispute rooted in the colonial past.

BRICS in numbers

The acronym BRICS stands for the group established by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa. Following the initial BRIC summit in Ekaterinburg, Russia, in 2009, when the group was officially launched, they focused on improving the role of emerging economies and developing countries in the global order.

At their second summit in April 2010, BRIC leaders welcomed South Africa into the group, which changed its name to BRICS to reflect this inclusion. The group has taken strides toward providing alternative economic instruments for member countries, such as the launch of the multilateral New Development Bank (NDB).

The expanded BRICS+ now represents 46% of the global population and accounts for over a quarter of the world’s land area. With a combined global trade share of 28%, attracting 25% of global FDI (foreign direct investment), BRICS+ holds substantial potential to boost worldwide trade. Comparatively, BRICS+ now rivals other global economic blocs such as the EU and G7 in terms of global influence and economic reach.

For example, the G7 group’s share of global GDP (gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity, or in PPP terms) decreased from 42.1% in 2002 to 29.6% in 2024 – a 12.5%-point decline. In contrast, the BRICS+ group’s share increased from 24.1% in 2002 to 36.7% in 2024 – a 12.6%-point increase. These shifts indicate a rebalancing of global economic power, with BRICS+ potentially leading the charge in representing the economic interests of the Global South. By 2029, the G7 group’s share is expected to fall even further to 27.5%, while the BRICS+ group’s share is projected to rise to 38.3%, highlighting the growing influence of emerging economies in the global market.

More Africa: opportunities and challenges

Egypt and Ethiopia both hold considerable power within their regions, in addition to having diversified economies and large populations. Their membership in BRICS bestows a unique platform to amplify their voices on a global scale, while providing other group members wider access to the continent’s markets.

Together, Egypt and Ethiopia bring a wealth of experience and expertise to the BRICS group. Their inclusion has strengthened the group’s diversity and broadened its geographical reach. This has enabled BRICS to become a more representative voice for developing countries and to play a more active role in global affairs. However, their membership also comes with significant challenges, both domestically and in terms of regional dynamics.

A notable challenge that could strain BRICS cooperation is the existing tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam, nearing completion, is allegedly feared to reduce water flow to Egypt and Sudan. However, with 90% of the GERD completed, energy production in Ethiopia has commenced, and Egypt’s water supply has not (yet) been impacted by the reservoir’s quick filling thanks to a string of exceptional wet seasons. While the Nile Agreement historically gave Egypt and Sudan control over the river’s waters, Ethiopia has refused to be bound by the treaty.

This dispute, as many others in Africa, has its roots in the colonial past. The goal of the British imperial strategy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was to ensure Egypt’s political and economic stability by controlling the Nile Basin mainly to produce cotton that would feed Britain’s textile industry. The British aimed to control the waters of the Nile as part of this plan, and by the 1890s, they had taken over countries like Uganda and Sudan. The 1902 agreement, which stipulated that Ethiopia, under Emperor Menelik II, would not use the Blue Nile’s waters without British permission, cemented their dominance. By treating the Nile as a single hydrological unit under British control, this agreement and other diplomatic ploys made Britain the de facto ruler of the Nile Basin. At the same time, regional inequality was widened, and the river was used as a weapon against Egyptian nationalism. This long-standing dispute could create friction within BRICS if unresolved, as it involves two key members with conflicting interests over a vital resource.

Egypt: diversifying the economy

Egypt is currently grappling with an economic crisis, with inflation peaking at close to 40% in March 2024 and the Egyptian pound being one of the worst-performing currencies globally. Having relied on US aid for years, Egypt is now seeking to expand its economy through trade with BRICS members, particularly through agricultural imports from India and China, such as wheat.

Russia strengthened its position as the leader in Egypt’s wheat market in the 2023–2024 marketing year, rising to a 63% market share from 55% the year before. Russia remained in the lead with 5.9 MMT (million metric tons) of wheat exports between July and March 2023–2024, despite a rebound in Ukrainian wheat exports to Egypt, which reached 1.2 MMT. The sharp increase in Russian wheat shipments, especially after Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) reopened bids for Ukrainian wheat in December 2023, underscores Russia’s vital role in satisfying Egypt’s wheat needs, surpassing those of other suppliers like the EU.

Additionally, Egypt’s vibrant plastics sector could benefit from improved access to markets in other BRICS+ countries, providing much-needed economic diversification. The plastics industry is one of the nation’s most dynamic manufacturing sectors and produces a wide range of goods, from construction components to packaging materials. This industry has been expanding rapidly, propelled by exports as well as domestic demand, and is vital to Egypt’s economic landscape.

Egypt’s trade and industry minister, Ahmed Samir, stated the country’s goal of growing annual exports to $100 billion, particularly through industrial expansion and trade with new markets. BRICS could play a pivotal role in this, allowing Egypt to engage in trade denominated in BRICS currencies, potentially circumventing reliance on the US dollar. However, this will require structural reforms, including reducing bureaucratic barriers to foreign investment and better resource management to ensure long-term gains.

Ethiopia: growing fast

Ethiopia, though a rapidly growing economy, faces its own set of challenges, including inflation, foreign debt, and a lack of foreign currency. The conflict in the Tigray region has also severely impacted its economy. However, BRICS membership presents Ethiopia with opportunities to expand trade and attract investment, particularly from China and India, its largest trading partners outside the EU.

With Ethiopia’s economy growing at more than 5% annually, it is among the fastest-growing economies in Africa. The country’s leadership has emphasized that BRICS membership is an important diplomatic victory, one that will enable Ethiopia to bolster its international standing and economic ties. However, for Ethiopia to fully benefit from this, it must address its domestic issues, stabilize its political landscape, and improve infrastructure to capitalize on new trade opportunities.

Gates to African market

Egypt and Ethiopia could serve as gateways for other BRICS nations to access the African market. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, of which Egypt is a member, provides BRICS with direct access to regional markets. This could lead to increased intra-African trade and deeper economic integration.

Meanwhile, BRICS could serve as a counterbalance to Western-dominated financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, offering alternative sources of funding for African countries. This is particularly relevant for Ethiopia, which has historically struggled with debt burdens from traditional lenders. With BRICS providing more flexible financial arrangements, African countries could have greater leverage in negotiating the terms of development projects.

To conclude, the expansion of BRICS underscores the group’s growing influence in global affairs, especially as it incorporates more countries from the Global South. For Egypt and Ethiopia, BRICS membership presents opportunities for economic diversification, trade growth, and a stronger voice on the international stage. Moreover, access to BRICS+ financial resources could help stabilize Ethiopia’s economy and support structural reforms in Egypt, providing both nations with the tools needed to navigate domestic and regional tensions successfully.