There is a “need for collective diplomatic efforts to halt the Zionist regime’s aggressions and crimes,” Iran’s foreign ministry tweeted, citing a letter the country’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi sent to his counterparts around the world over the weekend.
Other sources and experts globally have used words such as “nervous” and “anxiety” when describing the current mood in Tehran as the country awaits Israel’s response to its October 1 missile attack, when almost 500 ballistic missiles and other projectiles were fired from the Islamic Republic at the Jewish State.
If the Iranians are indeed nervous; it could be a good sign for Israel.
The United States has been in discussions with Israel regarding its planned response to Iran’s October 1 attack, cautioning against targeting Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets. During a call last Wednesday, US President Joe Biden urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure any retaliation remains “proportional,” marking their first conversation in nearly two months.
According to The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob, reporting at the end of last week, Israel is not expected to attack Iran’s nuclear program but rather focus on various kinds of military bases and intelligence sites.
Further, the Post learned that Israel’s attack on Iran – which virtually all top Israeli officials have publicly promised – will still be much more substantial than its narrower retaliation on April 19, when Iran’s S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was damaged.
Despite being presented with the idea that the current context could be a once-in-50-years opportunity to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, sources indicated that attacking Iran’s nuclear program would not necessarily be consistent with the “goals of the war” as set by the security cabinet.
Tehran has good reason to be nervous
Tehran has good reason to be nervous. The two Iranian proxies bordering Israel have taken massive blows. Over the past six months, since the first attack against Israel in April, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in July in the belly of the beast, Tehran itself, and Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike in Beirut in September. Israel has been alleged to be behind both assassinations as well as the pager attack in September which saw thousands of electronic beepers belonging to Hezbollah members simultaneously explode across Lebanon, injuring hundreds of Hezbollah’s commanders.
The depth with which Israel can strike has reportedly led Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini to spend time underground for fear he is next on Israel’s hit list.
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have warned Iran that its involvement is a grave misstep. Netanyahu specifically stated that Iran “will pay the price” for its role in these attacks.
This situation places Iran in a delicate position. While it seeks to bolster its proxy forces in the region, Iran is cautious about provoking a full-scale Israeli retaliation. Israel’s superior military capabilities, including its advanced missile defense systems, cyber warfare units, and intelligence operations, give it a significant advantage in any direct confrontation with Iran.
Moreover, Israel enjoys strong diplomatic and military support from the United States, which has warned Iran not to escalate the conflict further. This support, coupled with Israel’s military strength, could make Iran wary of pushing too far.
So far, 2024 has seen enormous upheaval in the evolution of the war between Iran and Israel, so often fought in the shadows. It has now moved to a public arena with the two countries directly striking each other.
Reports emerged over the weekend that American soldiers will make their way to Israel to help operate Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense systems, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Thus – despite public tensions– their presence concretizes that Israel still retains the support of its most powerful ally in the US in defending its soil.
Iran is still awaiting Israel’s response to their October attack, which Israeli leaders have promised as substantial. The Islamic Republic has reason to be nervous.
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