The mainstream media, which leans heavily Democratic, would have us believe the presidential race is neck and neck. An NBC poll from October 4-8 reports a 48%-48% tie, while ABC News/Ipsos shows Harris narrowly leading with 50% to Trump’s 48%. However, the same sources and others cast serious doubt on the reliability of these polls.
Bread-and-Street Issues
Elections hinge on voters’ top concerns, typically “bread-and-butter” issues. This year, public safety and illegal immigration have emerged as equally important — what we might call “bread-and-street” issues. Voters are asking: Are our streets safe? Are our wallets secure?
A Pew Research survey (August-September 2024) lists the top concerns: the economy (81%), healthcare (65%), Supreme Court appointments (63%), foreign policy (62%), violent crime (61%), and immigration (61%). Notably absent from Pew’s poll is any mention of open borders or illegal immigration, which might have ranked higher.
Voters judge incumbents harshly when the economy falters or safety declines. Harris has struggled to distance herself from Biden, but she is effectively running as an incumbent, carrying the burden of a 54% job disapproval rating tied to the Biden administration. Moreover, the Pew poll shows voters trust Trump more on key issues: Trump leads Harris by 10% on the economy, 7% on immigration, and 6% on foreign policy.
The NBC poll also highlights Biden-Harris’ policy struggles, with 45% of respondents saying they’ve been harmed by his policies, compared to 25% saying they’ve benefited — a 20-point negative gap. In contrast, Trump has a 13-point positive margin, giving him a 33-point advantage over Harris on household-impacting policies.
The ABC/Ipsos poll further shows 59% believe the economy is worsening, with only 23% seeing improvement. Among those frustrated with the economy, they trust Trump by a massive 53 points (74% to 21%), translating to 43.7% of voters backing Trump on economic issues, compared to only 12.4% for Harris.
The Country’s Direction
The Center Square Voters’ Voice poll, conducted from October 2-4, found that 60% of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while only 30% think it’s on the right track. The NBC’s October poll echoes this, with 65% of registered voters saying the country is on the wrong path.
Polls measuring the “direction of the country” often serve as a referendum on the incumbent’s performance. When voters feel optimistic about the nation’s trajectory, incumbents typically benefit. However, when dissatisfaction runs high, challengers gain momentum. With most voters believing the country is off course, this is yet another disadvantage for Harris.
Voting Bloc Realignments
Key voting blocs are realigning, complicating the polling narrative. One shift Harris now polls at just 41% with this group — a 12-point drop. Black voters were 13% of the 2020 vote, and 40% were aged 18-44. A 12-point decline here could shift the national vote by 0.3%.
Hispanic voters are also realigning. Trump’s support grew from 28% in 2016 to 32% in 2020. A recent Pew poll shows 39% of Latinos favor Trump, a 7-point rise that could boost his national vote by 1%, given that Latinos comprise 13% of the electorate.
Another key demographic realignment is male voters. Women traditionally lean Democratic, while men favor Republicans. Since women outvote men by five percentage points, Republican candidates must increase their share of women’s votes or maintain a large male advantage. Due to the Democrats’ stance on gender issues, polls now show the gender divide favoring Trump.
NBC reports Trump leading men by 16 points, while Harris leads women by 14 points, resulting in a net margin of minus 2. Similarly, ABC/Ipsos shows a 9-point lead for Harris among women and an 8-point lead for Trump among men. A Pew survey shows a narrower gap, with Harris up by 6 points among women and Trump leading by 6 points among men. No Republican has lost the presidency since 1980 with a gender gap of less than minus three points.
And yet, how did we end up with a tied race? Considering the three factors outlined above, Trump should be leading in the polls by at least 8%.
A Repeat of 1980 or 2020?
This election cycle bears striking similarities to the 1980 race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Back then, a struggling economy, rising crime, and the Iran hostage crisis frustrated Americans. Despite polls showing a close race, Reagan won in a landslide, taking 51% of the popular vote and 489 electoral votes to Carter’s 49. Analysts attributed Reagan’s surge to a late shift in voter preferences, with 13% of voters changing their minds in the final days — a phenomenon known as the “big bang” theory, where undecided voters swing decisively toward change.
Could 2024 follow a similar path? With economic anxiety, public safety concerns, and frustration over illegal immigration, the conditions seem ripe for a similar shift. However, one major difference clouds this election: mail-in voting. In 2020, nearly 43% of voters cast their ballots by mail, with Biden winning two-thirds of the mail-in vote. In Pennsylvania alone, Biden questionably secured 76% of mail-in ballots compared to Trump’s 23%.
While mail-in voting may be less widespread this year, it remains significant, particularly in battleground states. With Democrats pushing for extended mail-in voting and post-Election Day ballot counting, this creates an unpredictable dynamic and raises concerns about potential fraud, bringing us the repeat of 2020.
If 14% of Americans lost package deliveries to theft in 2022, and 0.55% of shipments were stolen in 2023, why would mail-in votes be any different? With so much power and emotion at stake, the potential for misconduct increases. This raises questions about the relevance of polling data: are they irrelevant, or do they serve as a cover, depending on how mail-in ballots are processed and counted?
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