With all signs pointing to the idea that Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar was killed earlier Saturday, the main question is: will this end the Gaza war?
Reasons it could end the Gaza war are because Sinwar was the architect of the October 7 massacre, he was Hamas’s last remaining major leader in Gaza who could manage its military resistance, and because it could be a clear moment for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare “victory.”
On the flip side, the results of the Gaza war: most notably the 101 Israeli live and dead hostages, are still in play, defeating Hamas as a political governing force in Gaza is still an open question, and there have always been questions about why and when Netanyahu would want to end or extend the war.
Looking at each of these elements more carefully, there are shockingly so far no reports that Sinwar killed any hostages as he was being overtaken by IDF troops.
This is stunning because throughout the war, Israeli intelligence assumed he had surrounded himself with hostages.
Some even believed the IDF at times knew where he was and refrained from killing him because there were hostages surrounding him.
Many said this was why he alone had survived so long while virtually all of his top commanders had been killed.
The fate of the hostages
One possible explanation, if in fact there were no hostages nearby, is that the six hostages killed in Rafah at the end of August were the group that Sinwar had kept around him throughout the war. This would make sense with Hersh Goldberg Polin being one of the six as he was one of the most high profile and “valuable” hostages from a propaganda point of view.
If that is true, questions would arise as to why he would give them up as human shields just when the IDF was relatively close by, but not actually about to kill him.
In any event, will Hamas now kill the rest of the living hostages? Or will someone else, possibly his brother Muhammad Sinwar, possibly Khaled Mashalla in Qatar – a former Hamas chief – or possibly some new lesser known surviving figure – take over the hostages’ destiny and keep them alive for negotiations.
If Hamas keeps the hostages alive, will the new figure controlling their fate, try to accept survival and expulsion in exchange for the hostages, though Sinwar had stridently opposed this, or will they take a similar line to Sinwar, trying to use the hostages to preserve Hamas rule in gaza by forcing an IDF withdrawal?
Next, Hamas until now was not defeated. Will it crumple now without Sinwar?
Probably not.
Historically, Israel has killed many of Hamas’s top leaders at points where the organization was smaller and it always managed to scratch its way forward, partially because many of its recruits at all levels are extremely committed to its goal of destroying Israel, such that anyone is replaceable.
That said, killing Sinwar is a major blow which could weaken Hamas significantly even beyond where it had fallen up until this point.
This connects to the last point about when Netanyahu is ready to declare victory.
If he was waiting for a photogenic moment, this would be it.
Along with Mohhamed Deif, Marwan Issa, Ismail Haniyeh, Salah al-Arouri, and other top Hamas leaders, the planners of October 7 are all dead now.
Netanyahu could show some more flexibility about who will run Gaza next, using this victory moment for his electoral purposes.
But if Netanyahu – either ideologically or due to concerns about electoral attacks from his Right – decides he must keep the war running until he has achieved some kind of amorphous end to Hamas in Gaza politically, the war could drag on significantly longer.
At that point, the next factor which could end the war could be the next US president in January 2025, since both Kamala Harris and Daonald Trump, for different reasons, have said they want the war ended.
Netanyahu will be waiting for the next move from Hamas regarding the hostages, but in the larger sense, the next move is his.
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