As Election Day nears, one issue stands out as a potential game-changer: the significance of crime in key swing states, which may just be the catalyst that tips the election toward Donald Trump.
Amid ongoing political debates, crime has become a growing concern for voters, particularly so in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. As safety takes center stage, the Biden-Harris administration’s policies face increased scrutiny.
According to a fresh Washington Post/Schar School poll conducted across key swing states between September 30 and October 15, 2024, crime is a significant issue in the upcoming election for nearly four in five key-state voters. Additionally, former President Donald Trump holds a substantial lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on the issue, with voters trusting him to handle crime better than Harris by a margin of roughly ten points.
Biden-Harris Crime Policy
The Biden-Harris administration has often championed police reform and community-based approaches to crime reduction, with Harris herself having once expressed support for the “defund the police” movement, claiming it “rightly” questioned the allocation of funds to policing over social services such as education and mental health, while noting that increased police presence does not necessarily lead to more safety.
Critics argue that the administration’s soft-on-crime policies and calls to “reimagine” policing are responsible for having weakened law enforcement and emboldened criminals.
“For the past four years, American communities have been forced to live with failed, soft-on-crime policies that have sought to free violent criminals and defund our law enforcement,” lamented Republican Congressman John Joyce of Pennsylvania last month.
Trump’s Law-and-Order Appeal
In contrast, Donald Trump has made “law and order” a cornerstone of his campaign, vowing to “end the lawlessness once again,” while focusing on policies that emphasize support for police and tougher penalties for criminals.
He has also frequently criticized Democratic leaders for fostering an environment that allows crime to flourish. Last month, he accused Harris of having “blood on her hands” caused by the increase in migrant crime in the country.
Despite attempts by the Biden-Harris administration to downplay crime rates, the Trump campaign has accused it of mismanaging crime data and overseeing a dramatic rise in violent crime, with 2022 and 2023 marking two of the deadliest years since 2012. In fact, despite initial reports from the FBI indicating a slight decrease in violent crime in 2022, a quiet revision revealed a 4.5 percent increase, sparking concerns over the transparency of the data collection process.
The campaign also noted that under Harris, violent crime surged to record levels last year, surpassing any year under Trump, with murder rates still higher than before the pandemic.
In August, Trump blasted Harris for what he called a “migrant crime epidemic” on her watch that has severely impacted swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, among others. The former president posted a series of migrants suspected of crimes like murder, child sexual assault, fatal hit-and-run, rape, and burglary, among other felonies.
In particular, Trump’s posts note that the crimes occurred in critical swing states in this year’s election — the majority of which are thousands of miles from the border with Mexico.
In addition, a recent NBC poll revealed a growing number of voters believe Trump is better equipped to handle crime compared to his Democratic counterpart, particularly in areas where violent crime has spiked — a perception contributing to support in key battleground states.
Election Impact
The seven swing states expected to sway the 2024 presidential election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together, they hold 93 critical electoral votes that are set to decide the winner between Harris and Trump.
With slightly over two weeks until Election Day, recent polling data shows Trump making gains in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia, where he now leads Harris by narrow margins. According to an internal poll from his campaign, Trump is leading Harris in all seven key swing states, ahead by margins ranging from one to five percentage points.
As crime remains a growing concern in swing states, the question is whether voters will choose the candidate they feel can restore safety and security. Trump’s focus on law and order gives him a significant advantage with voters who prioritize crime reduction, while the Harris campaign struggles to address these concerns effectively in the limited time remaining before the election.
This is especially crucial as the Biden-Harris administration has already failed on the global stage.
From the chaotic Afghanistan war withdrawal to the Israel-Hamas war, the administration’s foreign policy has left the world on the brink of World War III. Adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran — once restrained under Trump’s leadership — are now emboldened, raising concerns that a Harris presidency could spell further disaster both abroad and at home.
Ultimately, crime concerns in key battlegrounds, alongside the administration’s foreign policy disasters, could be one of the most significant factors driving voters to the polls — and into Trump’s corner.
Joshua Klein is a reporter for Breitbart News. Email him at jklein@breitbart.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaKlein.
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