Israel began airstrikes on Iran overnight in the first hour of October 26. They began on Shabbat in Israel when people were at home with families for the weekend.
The strikes are important and come more than three weeks after Iran attacked Israel with 180 ballistic missiles on October 1. This was the second Iranian attack of its kind. The first was in April, involving 300 drones and missiles. Iran has also been using proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen to attack Israel for a year. In addition, Iran backed the October 7 massacre.
Therefore, Israel’s retaliation is important. It sends a message to Iran that direct attacks will receive a response. Forcing Israelis into shelters due to ballistic missiles will receive a response.
Iran has been on a roll in the region over the last decade. It attacked Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles in 2019. It has attacked ships in the Gulf of Oman. It has also used drones flown from Chabahar to attack commercial ships. It has armed the Houthis to attack ships over the last year. It has carried out multiple ballistic missile attacks on Kurds in Iraq. It even launched missiles at armed groups in Syria and Pakistan.
Iran’s long list of attacks has often come without any retaliation. For instance, it mobilized militias to attack US forces in Iraq hundreds of times since 2019. The US did respond several times, but Iran feels it can get away with whatever it wants.
Israel is now saying that Iran can’t get away with everything. The IDF said that “in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel – right now the IDF is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran.”
Israel’s military also noted that “the regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7 – on seven fronts – including direct attacks from Iranian soil.”
Iran’s reaction will be important to watch
Israel is working to deter Iran and assert that it has a right to respond. This is very important, but Iran’s reaction will be important to watch. Iran’s president has just been at the BRICS conference in Russia alongside the Russian leader and leaders and envoys from some two dozen countries. Iran was working the room to encourage anti-Israel sentiment among the non-western countries that were present.
Israel says that “like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.” Israel is now mobilized to conduct these strikes and defend the country against Iran’s possible responses. This retaliatory attack was well planned, communicated, and telegraphed over the last weeks. This means that Iran got the message even beforehand that it would receive a response. Much brinkmanship went into seeing which type of response might not provoke a larger war.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the region this week, and that issue is certainly on his mind. However, countries in the Middle East, such as Egypt, were also focused on the meetings at BRICS in Russia. Most countries in the region seem resigned to the Israeli strikes.
Now, the ball may be back in Iran’s court. If Iran is not deterred, then further escalation may occur.
