Israel carried out long-awaited airstrikes on Iran, on Friday night, on precise and targeted military targets. These were aimed at “thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel,” the IDF said.
Despite the much-anticipated attack, Israel reported they finished the attack before the sun rose in Tehran.
The strikes were designed to retaliate for Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel on October 1.
So, what are the developments since the strikes, and what can the strikes tell us about the new situation in the region?
Iran downplays strikes
Iranian state media overnight portrayed the country as unaffected by the attacks. Pro-Iran Telegram channels put up videos of people on the roof of a building, mocking the Israeli attack.
One statement noted that while Israelis run for shelter when there are rockets, the Iranians make tea and sit at home as if all is normal. The reason for this is that Iran didn’t set off sirens in most cities, unlike Israel.
In the morning Iranian state media showed more “normalcy” in Tehran. Videos showed people driving around and going about their morning exercises.
This illustrates that Iran is trying to show it is not affected by the strikes. It wants to show it can safeguard civilian life amid the tensions. It wants to contrast this with Israel where Iran’s attack with 180 ballistic missiles forced the entire country of Israel into shelters for almost an hour on October 1.
Israel showcases the capability of long-range strikes
Israel’s successful strikes on Iran showcase the country’s long-range military capabilities – capabilities perfect after many years of preparation.
The same attacks displayed by Israel last night were also carried out during long-range strikes targeting the Houthis to retaliate for their attacks. The strikes on the Houthis involved numerous aircraft. These included F-15s and F-35s and the strikes were carried out over several hours.
Israel had real-world experience carrying out long-range operations – the Houthi strikes were just practise for their Tehran backer.
The strikes on Iran are a message that Israel can carry out these kinds of operations. Therefore Iran should now be on notice that Israel has many types of capabilities using advanced weaponry that can be used again in the future; showing the strikes were a wider message.
US-Israel cooperation on display
It’s likely that the US backing of Israel by deploying the THAAD air defense system and also deploying other air assets to the region was important in underscoring how US-Israel cooperation in the lead-up to the strikes on Israel.
Israel informed the US prior to the strikes – a change from Israeli operations in the past. The cooperation this time is important because Israel has been part of US Central Command over the past several years.
Israel, the US, and other partner countries have coordinated during the Iranian attacks on Israel in April and October. US Central Command is an important component of stability in the region.
After the April attacks by Iran, there was a lot of sharing of information between Israel and the US and Central Command in terms of after-action reports and debriefing to see how successful the air defense picture was. This is important and each time there is more escalation provides a chance for more learning and cooperation between the militaries.
Will this become the new normal?
The two Iranian strikes on Israel and Israel’s retaliation on October 26 now show that direct confrontation between Iran and Israel is becoming more normal – the proverbial “seal is broken” and there may be more of these attacks. It could become a new normal in the region.
The taboo of direct strikes is now gone, and both countries now think they can manage this conflict. Instead of the strikes leading to “world war III” as some commentators had suggested in the past, the countries are managing the conflict in a kind of escalatory understanding.
This is a reminder of the Cold War. However, the US and Russia never got into a real shooting war during the Cold War. The Iran-Israel Cold War is now becoming more hot. This is largely Iran’s fault. Iran backed the October 7 attack and it has moved proxies, like pawns, to strike at Israel from seven fronts. This means that Israel has been forced to respond. The question is whether Iran now thinks it is winning and will carry out more attacks.
Regional countries condemn Israel
Gulf countries have rushed to condemn Israel. Some of these countries have been working to reconcile with Iran. For instance, Saudi Arabia has reconciled with Iran based on Chinese brokering a deal between them. The UAE has also met with Iranian officials at the BRICS confab in Russia. Egypt was also attending BRICS. Qatar backs Iran. Oman and Iran recently had military drills. This means that many countries in the region appear engaged with Iran and are growing closer to Tehran. They prefer to pay lip service to condemning Israel.
Iran has been working the room, so to speak, in regional meetings. Iran’s foreign minister was recently in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries.
The goal of Iran is to surround Israel and make it appear Israel is the problem in the region. Many of these countries condemning Israel on October 26 appear to be officially backing Iran in this scenario. This is not helpful in terms of Israel’s long-term goals of integrating with the region and becoming part of an arc of stability in the region.
Prior to October 7, the goal of the US was regional integration. Now Israel is being singled out. Iran thinks it is winning the diplomatic game in the wake of the Israeli airstrikes.
Is Iran deterred?
In the wake of the airstrikes, there will be key questions about whether Iran is deterred. At the moment Iran is trying to assert that it was not harmed in the attacks. If evidence emerges that Iran did suffer serious damage it may want to respond.
On the other hand, it might be concerned Israel could escalate. However, Iran’s threats appear to have already gotten the US to caution Israel against stronger blows aimed at Tehran.
In many ways, the three weeks of lead-up to this attack meant it was not a surprise and gave everyone a chance to prepare the messaging in advance.
This kind of choreographed war fighting may serve America’s interests but the question is how Iran reads this. It may read it as a victory because it rained down 180 missiles on Israel and it received what it claims is a limited blow in return.
Iran has learned a lot from its two attacks on Israel. The fact that the US had to deploy THAAD to Israel may send a message to Iran that Israel’s air defenses are not capable of defending against a larger Iranian attack.
Furthermore, Iran now feels it can launch ballistic missiles at Israel whenever it wants. In the entire history of Israel very few countries have ever carried out an attack inside Israel using missiles or warplanes. Egypt bombed Tel Aviv in the 1948 war and Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Israel. However, Iran clearly feels it can terrorize Israel and get away with it. After the October 26 strikes Iran is not displaying any kind of sense that it will climb down from these threats.
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